Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) looks to resume upward trend
With the selling that has hit the market over the last month, most of the select sector SPDR ETFs have moved below their 52-week moving averages. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) is one of the few that is still above its 52-week moving average and in fact, it isn’t even close to moving below the trend line.
The XLP did reach oversold territory on its daily chart, but there are signals hinting at a rally being due. We see on the daily chart that the stochastic readings reached oversold territory and made a bullish crossover on June 3. The last few times the indicators have been at or near oversold territory and performed a bullish crossover, the ETF has rallied nicely over the next month or so.
In addition to the bullish stochastic crossover, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal on the XLP on May 31. The signal sh0wed a confidence level of 90% and it predicts a gain of at least 4% over the coming month.
Of the last 100 predictions made by the prediction engine on the XLP, 92% have been successful.
XLP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on July 17, 2025
XLP moved above its 50-day moving average on July 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 43 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for XLP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 03, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLP advanced for three days, in of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 15, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLP as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLP turned negative on July 11, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for XLP entered a downward trend on June 30, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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Category ConsumerStaples
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