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Oct 09, 2018

Could Sanctions Disrupt Global Oil Markets?

The Trump administrations withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, and its subsequent decision to re-impose sanctions, could very well have rippling effects on global oil markets. 

A number of US companies have already stopped their imports despite the sanctions going into effect in early November 2018. French oil giant, Total SA (TOT, $63.21), is the most recent non-US company to announce that it has stopped buying Iranian oil. A number of companies from countries like India, however, which are heavily oil dependent, are continuing to import Iranian oil -- defying the Trump administration’s call for countries to completely cut-off trade.

A slow but steady increase in the US's rig count during the course of 2018 has helped investors remain optimistic. Refineries continue to ramp-up their operations to enhance output as hurricanes have knocked out a significant portion of the country’s refining capacity, leading to a dip in crude stockpiles. However, with refinery utilization increasing to 83.2% during the second week of September 2018, the tide is shifting with crude oil in storage also increasing by 4.6 million barrels.

Related Ticker: TTE

TTE in -2.79% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on May 22, 2024

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where TTE declined for three days, in of 261 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TTE moved out of overbought territory on April 30, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 21, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TTE as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for TTE entered a downward trend on May 28, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 57 cases where TTE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

TTE moved above its 50-day moving average on May 28, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TTE advanced for three days, in of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TTE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TTE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.387) is normal, around the industry mean (1.218). P/E Ratio (8.044) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.146). TTE's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.146) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.841). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.775) is also within normal values, averaging (0.979).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), BP plc (NYSE:BP), Petroleo Brasileiro Sa-Petrobras ADS (REP 1 Common Share) (NYSE:PBR), Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

Industry description

Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Integrated Oil Industry is 61.27B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 39.76K to 461.22B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 461.22B. The lowest valued company is PGAS at 39.76K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was 0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 14%. ECTM experienced the highest price growth at 11%, while YPF experienced the biggest fall at -10%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was -26%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -20% and the average quarterly volume growth was -1%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 31
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 55
Profit Risk Rating: 65
Seasonality Score: 29 (-100 ... +100)
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