CrowdStrike Holdings struggling after IPO
CrowdStrike Holdings (Nasdaq: CRWD) is an infrastructure software company that offers security solutions at different levels through its Falcon platform. CrowdStrike went public back on June 12 and the stock has been all over the board since it debuted. It jumped from around $60 to over $100 in August, only to fall back below the $50 level in the past few months.
From a fundamental perspective, CrowdStrike seems to be running in to the same problem a number of companies that debuted in 2019 have run in to—if you aren't profitable, your stock will pay the price. Since going public, the company has issued two earnings reports with EPS of $-0.47 and $-0.18. Analysts expect the company to lose $0.63 per share for the year as a whole and they expect the company to lose $0.35 in 2020.
Because the company is losing money, there isn't a calculable return on equity and the profit margin is -53.8%.
CrowdStrike has performed well in terms of its sales growth with sales growing by an average of 114% per year over the last three years and they jumped by 94% in the third quarter.
The sales growth is one of the few positive fundamental indicators for the company at this time. There are a number of indicators from Tickeron that are well below average. For instance, the Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 indicates that the company is overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks.
The Price Growth Rating for CrowdStrike is a 93 and that indicates that the price growth is far below average, meaning the stock's price has grown at a lower rate over the last 12 months compared to S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return) while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for CrowdStrike is 100 and that is the worst rating a company can get. It indicates that the returns do not compensate for the risks. The company's unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within the last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
Looking at the chart we see how the stock jumped after its debut, but peaked near $100 in August. Since then the stock dropped in half and recently rebounded back to its IPO price.
A rally over the last week or so saw the stock jump from the $45 area back up to the $60 area which is where the stock debuted back in June. This could be an area of resistance just based on that fact.
The recent rally caused the overbought/oversold indicators to jump to overbought territory. The daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on November 19 and that could be a bad sign for the stock.
Looking at the sentiment toward CrowdStrike, it is relatively neutral. There are 20 analysts covering the stock with 12 "buy" ratings, seven "hold" ratings, and one "sell" rating. That puts the buy percentage at 60% which is slightly below average. The short interest ratio is at 3.1 which is right at average.
Aroon Indicator for CRWD shows an upward move is likely
CRWD's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on December 23, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 341 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 341 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CRWD advanced for three days, in of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CRWD moved out of overbought territory on December 17, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 58 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 07, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CRWD as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CRWD turned negative on December 18, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CRWD declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CRWD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on December 16, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CRWD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (33.557) is normal, around the industry mean (31.338). CRWD has a moderately high P/E Ratio (863.622) as compared to the industry average of (158.237). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.384) is also within normal values, averaging (2.763). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.084) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (25.510) is also within normal values, averaging (58.727).
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General Information
a holding company, which provides cloud-delivered solution for next-generation endpoint protection.
Industry PackagedSoftware