Crypto Bull Market. Is Bitcoin Bouncing Back?
Cryptocurrency markets are enjoying their first major upswing of the year, rising past $5,000 for the first time since November 2018 over the first three days of April before closing below that mark on April 4th.
The volatile behavior inherent to cryptocurrencies was on display throughout. Cointelegraph reported that some major coins “[saw] a mild surge in price, [while] others [boasted] double-digit gains.” CCN’s Yashua Gold indicated that bitcoin, which reached a “fresh yearly high at $5,342…was already trending inside an overbought zone when the downside action started,” as of April 4th. Its pulled back “towards $4,789, a higher low [from April 3rd]. The price didn’t extend the correction and started consolidating within a new trading range instead.”
Bitcoin is having a solid 2019 thus far despite the recent slight downturn. CCN indicates the price “has climbed 30% year-to-date,” and some industry figures believe it remains undervalued. Tom Lee of investment research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors told CNBC that bitcoin is trading “almost 64% below its fair market value” – a staggering number.
This figure, which CCN reports is calculated using a variety of factors including “the number of active bitcoin addresses coupled with activity per user,” as well as bull market factors “and the BTC mining breakeven price…which has fallen from a range of about $6,000 to $8,000 last year to between $5,000 and $6,000 now,” means bitcoin is theoretically worth around $14,000 – a number based on the fact that “a commodity during a bull period…generally trades two-to-2.5 times its breakeven.”
It is a figure that invites skepticism but remains significant. 2017 and early 2018’s boom cycle stoked public imagination about bitcoin’s potential. That imagination surfaces periodically during bull markets, where bitcoin often displays wild gains. Cointelegraph reported that Google Trend data indicated “search requests for Bitcoin…jumped from roughly 30 to 100” after prices increased by 15 percent overnight on April 2. The Google Trend number, which indicates “search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time,” at the very least represents a lingering interest in the asset despite well-publicized downturns and intense volatility.
Cryptocurrencies will continue to invite intense speculation, but never more so than after periods of substantial gains in a short time frame. The latest upswing may lack concrete answers – is it fueled by Brexit? An April Fool’s prank indicated the SEC approved a Bitcoin ETF? A Bloomberg report citing algorithmic hedge fund trading? – but it happened, and very well could happen again.
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