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Feb 04, 2019
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Crypto infrastructure grows as values fall

Crypto infrastructure grows as values fall

Bitcoin’s ups and downs over the past two years have been well-chronicled. 2017’s meteoric rise peaked in January 2018, followed by precipitous drops, slight recoveries, and everything in between. But focusing on bitcoin’s price volatility – value has decreased by 80-plus percent since that peak – misses the point, says seasoned crypto software engineer Jameson Lopp. In fact, Lopp argues that bitcoin has never been stronger than it was in 2018 – if you look at metrics independent from economics.

Lopp, who is CTO at crypto security firm Casa, described bitcoin in a Medium post as being “at the forefront of an increasingly complex ecosystem that continues to grow in a variety of ways. And for the tenth straight year, it stubbornly refused to die.” That growth took many forms. Google Trends indicate that search results have increased in developing countries; the bitcoin subreddit experienced 61 percent growth in 2018. Academic interest was at an all-time high, “which is great for the long-term prospects of this industry as we continue to gain a greater understanding of what we’re building,” says Lopp.

Venture capital and ICO-based funding for the blockchain industry reached new heights last year, at $3.1 billion and $16.7 million, respectively. 90 percent of blockchain-related companies may have failed, says Lopp, but investment figures indicate belief in blockchain’s potential – and trust in the companies unlocking it. Lopp points out that market volatility means people typically flee “more speculative crypto assets to the relative ‘safe haven’ of BTC,” indicating a trust in bitcoin as a digital store of value while “[resulting] in the relative share of the market value going up.” Blockchain security has improved, creating “more accurate statistics of on-chain activity.” Data anchoring and software upgrades have increased, as well as code commits, indicating a vibrant, worldwide network of developers interested in contributing to blockchain’s ongoing evolution.

Significant infrastructural improvements aside, the economic side of bitcoin was undeniably disappointing. But there were some notable exceptions. Trading volume declined overall in a bear market, but Localbitcoins data indicates that Colombia, India, Peru, and Venezuela actually increased their respective trading volumes. Offline peer-to-peer markets also showed positive signs of development – Lopp tweeted that the number of bitcoin ATMs doubled to 4,000 units, “continuing a [three] year trend of 100 percent year over year growth.” 

Bitcoin’s exchange rate took a tumble in 2018. But to Lopp, “exchange rate is just one of many metrics we can use to observe the evolution of this ecosystem.” The sexiness of January’s peak has worn off for everyone, but a growing system with better infrastructure means death announcements are premature. “We have no control over the market,” says Lopp. “But I expect that it will catch up to us sooner or later.”

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Related Ticker: BTC.X

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Allana's AvatarAllana|Expert

Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.


BTC.X in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 25, 2026

The 10-day moving average for BTC.X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 32%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BTC.X as a result. In 43 of 144 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 30%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BTC.X turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 67 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 16 of the 67 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 24%.

BTC.X moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 30%.

The Aroon Indicator for BTC.X entered a downward trend on November 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BTC.X's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 8 of 38 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 21%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +1.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in 123 of 424 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 29%.

BTC.X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the group is 1.54T. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.54T to 1.54T. BTC.X holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.54T. The lowest valued company is BTC.X at 1.54T.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was -4%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -10%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6%. BTC.X experienced the highest price growth at -4%, while BTC.X experienced the biggest fall at -4%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was -14%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 87% and the average quarterly volume growth was -44%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating:
P/E Growth Rating:
Price Growth Rating:
SMR Rating:
Profit Risk Rating:
Seasonality Score: (-100 ... +100)
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Crypto infrastructure grows as values fall