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Nov 10, 2022
D.R. Horton (DHI, $75.59) misses fiscal Q4 expectations, amidst rising rates' toll on demand

D.R. Horton (DHI, $75.59) misses fiscal Q4 expectations, amidst rising rates' toll on demand

D.R. Horton missed both revenue and earnings expectations for fiscal fourth quarter, amidst a rising interest rate environment apparently dampening demand for homes.

The biggest home building company in the U.S. earned $4.67 a share in the quarter, compared to $5.07 a share expected by analysts.

Revenue rose just under +19% from the year-ago quarter to $9.64 billion, but fell short of the Street expectations of $9.87 billion. Homebuilding revenue came in at $9.4 billion, increasing from $7.6 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The company experienced a rise in cancellation rate to 32%, from 24% in Q3 and from 19% in the year-ago quarter. Net orders dropped to 13,582 homes (value of $5.4 billion), from 16,693 homes ($6.9 billion value) in Q3 and from 15,949 homes ( $6.0 billion value) in Q4 2021.

Related Ticker: DHI

Momentum Indicator for DHI turns negative, indicating new downward trend

DHI saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on July 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for DHI moved out of overbought territory on June 29, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DHI turned negative on July 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

DHI moved below its 50-day moving average on July 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DHI advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 258 cases where DHI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.783) is normal, around the industry mean (2.001). P/E Ratio (13.945) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.250). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.238) is also within normal values, averaging (3.484). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.319) is also within normal values, averaging (1.507).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Industry description

Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Homebuilding Industry is 8.44B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 4.25K to 42.11B. DHI holds the highest valuation in this group at 42.11B. The lowest valued company is BDCC at 4.25K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0%. SPHL experienced the highest price growth at 25%, while HOV experienced the biggest fall at -9%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 8%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 13% and the average quarterly volume growth was -40%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 29
Price Growth Rating: 46
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 65
Seasonality Score: 57 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a company which engages in construction and sale of single family homes

Industry Homebuilding

Profile
Details
Industry
Homebuilding
Address
1341 Horton Circle
Phone
+1 817 390-8200
Employees
13450
Web
https://www.drhorton.com
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