D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): Can It Reclaim the $40 Level?
Key Takeaways
- Investors continue to ask whether D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) can return to the $40 level, a round-number target cited by several Wall Street firms.
- The main bullish argument centers on an order book that has grown sharply even while reported revenue has remained modest, alongside expanding production deployments and U.S. government support.
- The primary challenges include uneven revenue recognition, widening operating losses, a valuation that embeds significant future growth, and a technical picture that sits below key moving averages.
- Key support rests near the 52-week low around $12.75, with resistance in the low-$20s and again near prior highs around $46.75.
- Reaching $40 would require roughly a 140% advance from recent levels, so the outlook hinges on bookings converting into recognized revenue more rapidly than they have to date.
Why the $40 Level Draws Attention
D-Wave Quantum develops quantum annealing computing systems, software, and services, and it has drawn steady interest within the emerging quantum-computing space. After reaching a peak near $46.75 in late 2025, the stock has retreated and recently traded around $16.50, giving the company a market capitalization near $6.1 billion. That pullback has led many investors to wonder whether QBTS can realistically revisit the $40 mark.
The $40 level is not random. Firms including Cantor Fitzgerald, Jefferies, Craig-Hallum, and Wedbush have issued $40 price targets, positioning the round number in the upper half of the consensus range. Because the stock has already traded above $40, the target represents a return to familiar territory rather than a leap into unknown valuation territory.
Current Market Position
Recent results present a mixed picture. In the latest quarter, revenue held essentially flat year over year at about $3.1 million and fell short of estimates, while the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to roughly $37.1 million amid higher spending on development and commercialization. The company closed the period with approximately $546 million in cash and marketable securities, a sizable buffer that shrank partly due to the roughly $250 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits.
Demand signals, however, strengthened markedly. First-half bookings jumped more than 1,120% year over year to about $35.5 million, and remaining performance obligations rose to roughly $40.7 million. Management expects a meaningful share of that backlog to convert within twelve months, and a roughly $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University is slated for delivery and recognition largely in the fourth quarter.
Factors That Could Support Further Gains
The clearest route to $40 runs through revenue conversion. Successful shipment of annealing systems and recognition of the RPO as sales would lift the top line and validate the demand already secured. Management also plans to deliver a 17-qubit gate-based system by the end of 2026 and has mapped a longer roadmap toward fault-tolerant, 100-logical-qubit systems by 2032.
Commercial traction is expanding in ways that could underpin a higher valuation. Six customer applications are now running in production, and production use accounts for more than a third of quantum-computing-as-a-service revenue, a sharp increase from the prior year. Deployments with large customers have shown measurable operational gains, and a partnership in financial-crime detection points to wider enterprise use. U.S. government backing, including up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act, adds further validation of the dual annealing and gate-based strategy. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine to see how the broader sector momentum compares.
Obstacles That Could Limit Upside
Several hurdles stand between the current price and $40. Revenue remains lumpy and tied to a small number of large system sales, so quarterly results can vary sharply. The company is still deeply unprofitable, and a valuation that already prices in years of growth leaves little margin for execution shortfalls. Competition from better-funded names such as IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), along with large technology incumbents, raises the bar for sustained commercial progress.
Volatility is another consideration. With a beta well above 2, QBTS has seen frequent double-digit single-day moves, and recent insider selling adds a note of caution. Failure to convert bookings into revenue could keep the shares range-bound well below the $40 goal.
Analyst Targets and Technical Levels
Analyst sentiment stays largely positive. The consensus recommendation sits in “buy” territory, with an average price target of roughly $35 to $36, a low near $22, and a high near $43 to $45. The $40 objective therefore sits modestly above the consensus average yet receives backing from multiple individual firm targets.
From a technical standpoint the outlook is more guarded. The stock has traded below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a downtrend that has not yet reversed. The 52-week low near $12.75 remains the key support level, while the low-$20s represent an initial resistance that would need to be cleared before a sustained move toward $40 becomes realistic.
Monitoring QBTS with AI Tools
When tracking names like QBTS and the wider quantum-computing group, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals as part of my routine review. The tool applies artificial intelligence to scan thousands of stocks and ETFs, producing automated Buy, Sell, or Hold signals drawn from technical behavior, trend shifts, and AI-driven analysis. This helps surface fresh ideas, follow existing holdings, and spot changing conditions more quickly than manual checks alone would allow, which is especially useful in volatile sectors where momentum can shift rapidly.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
QBTS in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026
QBTS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 30 cases where QBTS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QBTS advanced for three days, in 166 of 195 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QBTS as a result. In 63 of 67 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QBTS turned negative on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 33 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QBTS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for QBTS entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. QBTS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.882) is normal, around the industry mean (7.321). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (51.117). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. QBTS's P/S Ratio (476.190) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QBTS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
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