Deutsche Bank (DB, $9.26) contemplating merger with Commerzbank
After years of failed turnaround attempts, the once dominant German financial institution Deutsche Bank is currently negotiating government-backed merger talks with Commerzbank AG.
This move arose in the wake of massive job cuts, political turbulence, a weakening European economy, U.S. probes into its dealings with Donald Trump and a herculean integration – not to mention skeptical clients and investors.
Further, the persistent struggle of both banks to restore revenue growth, along with an economic slowdown that has pushed back expectations for higher earnings, have added to the urgency of the merger.
Problem is, this merger could risk as many as 30,000 jobs.
Formal talks will only start after the government signals its non-interference in the way of necessary job and cost cuts. The merger of these two century-old entities, if successful, will have a combined market value of about 25 billion euros and would give birth to Europe’s fourth-largest lender with assets worth ~1.81 trillion euros ($2.05 trillion). It is suspected that Deutsche Bank, being the larger of the two, would probably be the acquirer.
Merger talks had already begun but were stalled in 2016. Today's talks have a greater sense of urgency, however, as Commerzbank has dropped most of its 2020 financial targets after cutting its revenue outlook. Within Deutsche Bank, doubts are growing that it will be able to reach its goals. Further, the recent decision by the European Central Bank to push out the much-awaited first interest rate increase has exacerbated the situation, as both banks have said that they will struggle to meet their long-term profitability target in the current low interest rate environment.
DB in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on December 09, 2024
The 10-day moving average for DB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on December 09, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where DB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
DB moved above its 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DB advanced for three days, in of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
DB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 18, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DB as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DB turned negative on December 19, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for DB entered a downward trend on November 26, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: DB's P/B Ratio (0.389) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.030). P/E Ratio (5.252) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.662). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.099) is also within normal values, averaging (2.366). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.980) is also within normal values, averaging (2.921).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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