Deutsche Bank (DB, $9.26) contemplating merger with Commerzbank
After years of failed turnaround attempts, the once dominant German financial institution Deutsche Bank is currently negotiating government-backed merger talks with Commerzbank AG.
This move arose in the wake of massive job cuts, political turbulence, a weakening European economy, U.S. probes into its dealings with Donald Trump and a herculean integration – not to mention skeptical clients and investors.
Further, the persistent struggle of both banks to restore revenue growth, along with an economic slowdown that has pushed back expectations for higher earnings, have added to the urgency of the merger.
Problem is, this merger could risk as many as 30,000 jobs.
Formal talks will only start after the government signals its non-interference in the way of necessary job and cost cuts. The merger of these two century-old entities, if successful, will have a combined market value of about 25 billion euros and would give birth to Europe’s fourth-largest lender with assets worth ~1.81 trillion euros ($2.05 trillion). It is suspected that Deutsche Bank, being the larger of the two, would probably be the acquirer.
Merger talks had already begun but were stalled in 2016. Today's talks have a greater sense of urgency, however, as Commerzbank has dropped most of its 2020 financial targets after cutting its revenue outlook. Within Deutsche Bank, doubts are growing that it will be able to reach its goals. Further, the recent decision by the European Central Bank to push out the much-awaited first interest rate increase has exacerbated the situation, as both banks have said that they will struggle to meet their long-term profitability target in the current low interest rate environment.
DB's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for DB entered a downward trend on June 23, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 140 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 140 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DB moved out of overbought territory on June 30, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 11, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DB as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
DB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DB just turned positive on July 09, 2025. Looking at past instances where DB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DB advanced for three days, in of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 50, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.389) is normal, around the industry mean (1.037). P/E Ratio (5.252) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.999). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.099) is also within normal values, averaging (2.366). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.059) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.980) is also within normal values, averaging (2.929).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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a major bank
Industry RegionalBanks
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