Disney (DIS, $128.57) misses revenue estimate; earns positive earnings unexpectedly
Disney reported revenue that fell short of analysts estimates' for its fiscal third quarter. However, it raked in positive earnings, beating expectations.
For the three months ending in June, the entertainment company’s revenue fell -42% year-over-year to $11.78 billion, below analysts’ expectation of $12.4 billion . Its diluted earnings plunged -94% from the year-ago quarter to 8 cents per share, compared to analysts’ estimate of a loss of -64 cents per share. (Analysts’ estimates are those based on FactSet poll).
As of the quarter end, Disney had 57.5 million Disney+ subscribers, 8.5 million ESPN+ subscribers and 35.5 million total Hulu subscribers.
The company’s total Direct-to-Consumer and International revenues grew +2% to $3.97 billion. Parks, Experiences and Products segment revenue dropped -85% to $983 million. Media Networks revenue declined -2% to $6.56 billion, and Studio Entertainment revenue fell -55% to $1.74 billion.
Tickeron's analysis says:
DIS is in Uptrend: Stochastic indicator leaves oversold zone
Leaving the oversold zone means the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. This is a chance to buy the ticker or explore call options. In 29 of 65 cases where DIS's Stochastic Indicator exited the oversold zone, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 45%.
Current price $128.37 crossed the support line at $128.49 and is trading between $128.49 support and $119.93 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 07/02/20 - 08/04/20, the price experienced a +5% Uptrend. During the week of 07/28/20 - 08/04/20, the stock enjoyed a +0.95% Uptrend growth.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 28, 2020. Traders may consider selling the ticker, shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 40 of 104 cases where DIS's Momentum Indicator fell below the 0 level, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 38%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed below the signal line. In 18 of 50 cases where DIS's MACD histogram became negative, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 36%.
The price moved below its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a reversal from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 20 of 35 cases where DIS's price crossed below its 50-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 57%.
The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed below its 50-day Moving Average on July 30, 2020. This can be construed as a sell signal, indicating that the trend is shifting lower. In 5 of 13 cases where DIS's 10-day Moving Average crossed below its 50-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 38%.
The Aroon Indicator entered a Downtrend today. In 70 of 177 cases where DIS Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 40%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 34%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.2 to 1.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.31) is normal, around the industry mean (0.11). Dividend Yield (1.35) settles around the average of (0.68) among similar stocks.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DIS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DIS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock better than average.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
DIS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
DIS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 27 of 34 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DIS moved out of overbought territory on August 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DIS as a result. In 42 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DIS turned negative on September 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
The 10-day moving average for DIS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DIS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for DIS entered a downward trend on September 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for DIS moved above the 200-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +2.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DIS advanced for three days, in 156 of 269 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
DIS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 26 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.657) is normal, around the industry mean (18.508). P/E Ratio (21.771) is within average values for comparable stocks, (97.633). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.438) is also within normal values, averaging (3.885). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.005) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.925) is also within normal values, averaging (2.913).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DIS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DIS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of amusement parks, hotels, television stations and radio broadcasting stations
Industry MoviesEntertainment
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