Dollar Tree (DLTR, $146.48) beats Q4 earnings expectations
Dollar Tree posted its fourth quarter earnings that exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The discount retail chain’s earnings fell -5.6% year over year to $2.01 per share in the quarter, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.79.
Consolidated net sales rose +4.6% from the year-ago quarter to $7,044.7 million but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7,127 million.
Enterprise same-store sales (comps) rose +2.5% year over year. Comps at the Dollar Tree banner were up +3.1%, while comps for the Family Dollar banner increased +1.7% year over year.
The company’s gross margin narrowed -160 bps to 30.2%, amid higher freight costs and recall-related markdowns, partly offset by continued improvement in shrink, positive product mix and lower distribution costs. The gross margin fell -50 bps to 35.6% at the Dollar Tree banner and -320 bps to 23.4% at the Family Dollar banner.
For fiscal 2022, the company expects to complete 800 Family Dollar H2 Renovations as part of the Key Real Estate Initiative, out of which there will be 190 Dollar Tree stores and 400 Family Dollar stores. Within the Family Dollar segment, 350 stores will be in the Combo Store format. The company plans to expand the $3 and $5 Plus assortments to more than 1,500 Dollar Tree stores.
DLTR in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on May 25, 2023
DLTR moved below its 50-day moving average on May 25, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 33 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 25, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DLTR as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DLTR turned negative on May 23, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 39 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for DLTR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 01, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DLTR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DLTR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for DLTR moved above the 200-day moving average on May 19, 2023. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DLTR advanced for three days, in of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
DLTR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 262 cases where DLTR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DLTR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.309) is normal, around the industry mean (56.963). P/E Ratio (21.598) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.073). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.776) is also within normal values, averaging (1.962). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.036) is also within normal values, averaging (1.153).
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Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
an operator of discount variety stores
Industry DiscountStores
DLTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DLTR has been loosely correlated with DG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DLTR jumps, then DG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DLTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR | 100% | +3.13% | ||
| DG - DLTR | 48% Loosely correlated | +2.63% | ||
| WMT - DLTR | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.96% | ||
| TGT - DLTR | 43% Loosely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| OLLI - DLTR | 38% Loosely correlated | +8.13% | ||
| BIG - DLTR | 37% Loosely correlated | +24.64% | ||
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