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Mar 04, 2022

Dollar Tree (DLTR, $146.48) beats Q4 earnings expectations

Dollar Tree posted its fourth quarter earnings that exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

The discount retail chain’s earnings fell -5.6% year over year to $2.01 per share in the quarter, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.79.

Consolidated net sales rose +4.6% from the year-ago quarter to $7,044.7 million but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7,127 million.

Enterprise same-store sales (comps) rose +2.5% year over year. Comps at the Dollar Tree banner were up +3.1%, while comps for the Family Dollar banner increased +1.7% year over year.

The company’s gross margin narrowed -160 bps to 30.2%, amid higher freight costs and recall-related markdowns, partly offset by continued improvement in shrink, positive product mix and lower distribution costs. The gross margin fell -50 bps to 35.6% at the Dollar Tree banner and -320 bps to 23.4% at the Family Dollar banner.

For fiscal 2022, the company expects to complete 800 Family Dollar H2 Renovations as part of the Key Real Estate Initiative, out of which there will be 190 Dollar Tree stores and 400 Family Dollar stores. Within the Family Dollar segment, 350 stores will be in the Combo Store format. The company plans to  expand the $3 and $5 Plus assortments to more than 1,500 Dollar Tree stores.

Related Ticker: DLTR

DLTR's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for DLTR moved out of oversold territory on March 26, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 52 cases where DLTR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 27, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DLTR as a result. In of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DLTR advanced for three days, in of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

DLTR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 270 cases where DLTR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DLTR turned negative on March 08, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 36 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

DLTR moved below its 50-day moving average on March 13, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for DLTR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 19, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DLTR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 46, placing this stock slightly worse than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DLTR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.949) is normal, around the industry mean (10.915). P/E Ratio (24.368) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.751). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.342) is also within normal values, averaging (3.471). DLTR has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.023). P/S Ratio (0.950) is also within normal values, averaging (1.239).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG).

Industry description

Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry is 69.21B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.78K to 489.28B. WMT holds the highest valuation in this group at 489.28B. The lowest valued company is TUEMQ at 1.78K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 16%. TBBB experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while DLMAF experienced the biggest fall at -2%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was 5%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -35% and the average quarterly volume growth was -22%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 59
Price Growth Rating: 47
SMR Rating: 45
Profit Risk Rating: 46
Seasonality Score: 20 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
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published General Information

General Information

an operator of discount variety stores

Industry DiscountStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Discount Stores
Address
500 Volvo Parkway
Phone
+1 757 321-5000
Employees
211826
Web
https://www.dollartree.com
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