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published in Blogs
May 31, 2019

DR Horton forming a base after post-earnings decline

Homebuilder DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) reported earnings on April 25. The company beat its EPS estimate as well as its revenue estimate, but the stock fell 4.76% that day as the company’s outlook disappointed investors. Now that the disappointment is starting to subside, the stock appears to be forming a base in the $44 area and looks as though it may be ready for another leg higher.

Looking at the daily chart we see that the stock has been trending higher since the end of December and there is a trend line that connects the lows from December, January, and March. The stock is still well above the trend line, but the stochastic readings have dipped down and are just above oversold territory and have now made a bullish crossover.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on DR Horton on May 1 and the signal showed a confidence level of 66%. The signal calls for a gain of 2.5% in the next week and 75% of previous predictions on the stock have been successful.

The fundamentals for DR Horton are pretty strong. The company has seen earnings grow by an average of 27% per year over the last three years. During that same span, sales have grown by a rate of 14% per year.

The company has a return on equity of 18.8% and a profit margin of 12.8%.

One other factor that should benefit DR Horton is the fact that the Fed has stopped raising interest rates, at least for the time being. The housing industry is very interest rate sensitive so the slowdown in the hiking cycle should help the entire industry, including DR Horton.

Related Ticker: DHI

DHI in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 08, 2023

The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 08, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 30, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DHI as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

DHI moved above its 50-day moving average on November 01, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DHI advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 355 cases where DHI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 71 cases where DHI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DHI turned negative on November 28, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 01, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.849) is normal, around the industry mean (5.710). P/E Ratio (9.116) is within average values for comparable stocks, (83.533). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.545) is also within normal values, averaging (1.597). DHI has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.008) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (1.220) is also within normal values, averaging (71.849).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Industry description

Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Homebuilding Industry is 5.47B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 66.68K to 42.07B. DHI holds the highest valuation in this group at 42.07B. The lowest valued company is ASCK at 66.68K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 12%, and the average quarterly price growth was 5%. CYRBY experienced the highest price growth at 7%, while CNRFF experienced the biggest fall at -14%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 288%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -28% and the average quarterly volume growth was -21%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 37
P/E Growth Rating: 34
Price Growth Rating: 46
SMR Rating: 53
Profit Risk Rating: 58
Seasonality Score: 29 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which engages in construction and sale of single family homes

Industry Homebuilding

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Homebuilding
Address
1341 Horton Circle
Phone
+1 817 390-8200
Employees
13450
Web
https://www.drhorton.com
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DHI and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DHI has been closely correlated with LEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DHI jumps, then LEN could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To DHI
1D Price
Change %
DHI100%
+2.50%
LEN - DHI
93%
Closely correlated
+2.86%
TOL - DHI
87%
Closely correlated
+2.20%
PHM - DHI
85%
Closely correlated
+2.94%
KBH - DHI
85%
Closely correlated
+3.40%
TMHC - DHI
82%
Closely correlated
+3.30%
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