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Apr 30, 2019

Eli Lilly (LLY) cuts revenue forecast

Eli Lilly and Co. reported lower-than-expected sales for its top-selling diabetes drug, Trulicity, and cut its full-year revenue forecast. Due to pressure to lower prices, Eli Lilly agreed to offer a half-priced version of insulin injection Humalog earlier this year. The drugmaker is one of the three main global providers of insulin products. 

Lilly said it now expects 2019 revenue to come in between $22.0 billion and $22.5 billion, lower than its prior forecast of $25.1 billion to $25.6 billion. Analysts had expected $22.17 billion.

Related Ticker: LLY

LLY's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for LLY entered a downward trend on November 12, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 102 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 102 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LLY as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LLY turned negative on October 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

LLY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 17, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LLY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 49 cases where LLY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in of 360 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

LLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LLY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (67.114) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.632). P/E Ratio (131.129) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.974). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.440) is also within normal values, averaging (3.004). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.164) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (20.121) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.643).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE:LLY), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK), ABBVIE (NYSE:ABBV), AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:AZN), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB).

Industry description

The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Pharmaceuticals: Major Industry is 86.34B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 72.83K to 739.66B. LLY holds the highest valuation in this group at 739.66B. The lowest valued company is CRXTQ at 72.83K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Pharmaceuticals: Major Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 4%. OTSKF experienced the highest price growth at 7%, while SCLX experienced the biggest fall at -28%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Pharmaceuticals: Major Industry was 26%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 87% and the average quarterly volume growth was 54%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 34
P/E Growth Rating: 68
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 62
Profit Risk Rating: 71
Seasonality Score: 23 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products

Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Pharmaceuticals Major
Address
Lilly Corporate Center
Phone
+1 317 276-2000
Employees
43000
Web
https://www.lilly.com
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