GET DAILY SIGNALSEli Lilly (LLY) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: +39.7% Revenue Growth on the Horizon
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $17.78 billion, up 39.7% year-over-year from $12.73 billion in Q1 2025.
- Consensus non-GAAP EPS forecast at $7.26, reflecting robust demand for key products.
- Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), both based on tirzepatide, are expected to drive the majority of growth.
- Company's full-year 2026 guidance projects revenue of $80-83 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $33.50-35.00.
- Investors watching for updates on manufacturing capacity and competition from rivals like Novo Nordisk.
- LLY shares have historically risen after 7 of the last 12 earnings reports, averaging +1.4% the day after.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Eli Lilly's Q1 2026 earnings, due April 30, arrive amid surging demand for its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for diabetes and weight management). Mounjaro and Zepbound have propelled revenue growth, with full-year 2025 sales hitting $65.2 billion, up 45%. From what I see, this report matters because it will signal progress on supply chain improvements and market share gains against competitor Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy. For investors, it offers insights into sustained pricing power, pipeline advancements like Kisunla for Alzheimer's, and execution on 2026 guidance amid the obesity treatment boom.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street anticipates first-quarter 2026 revenue of $17.78 billion, a 39.7% jump from Q1 2025's $12.73 billion, fueled by incretin (GLP-1/GIP) therapies. Consensus non-GAAP EPS is pegged at $7.26, up significantly from Q1 2025's reported figures.
Key metrics to watch include Mounjaro and Zepbound sales, which totaled over $11 billion combined in Q4 2025 alone (Mounjaro $7.4 billion, Zepbound $4.3 billion). Oncology drug Verzenio (for breast cancer) and diabetes staple Trulicity remain steady contributors. Eli Lilly has consistently beaten revenue estimates recently, though Q1 2025 EPS slightly missed. Stock reactions have been positive on beats, with focus now on volume growth amid easing supply constraints. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into Q1 earnings, sentiment around Eli Lilly is optimistic, buoyed by strong Q4 2025 results and upbeat 2026 guidance. Shares have shown resilience despite broader market volatility. Historically, LLY has posted gains after most earnings, with an average +1.4% move the day after over the last 12 reports. Risks include potential guidance caution on manufacturing ramps or competitive pressures, which could temper upside. Implied volatility suggests a potential 5-7% swing post-earnings.
A Tool I Rely On: Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I use regularly in my analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps me filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. It lets me scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics—making it far more efficient than manual screening for spotting trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and opportunities. I find it particularly useful for setups like LLY ahead of earnings.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following Q1 results, investors should track updates to full-year 2026 guidance of $80-83 billion in revenue and $33.50-35.00 non-GAAP EPS. Progress on expanding manufacturing for Mounjaro and Zepbound will be crucial, as supply improvements could unlock pent-up demand. One thing that stands out to me is how this could shape the trajectory.
Pipeline catalysts include Kisunla (donanemab for Alzheimer's), recently launched, and other candidates in immunology and oncology. Oncology sales, led by Verzenio at $1.6 billion in Q4 2025, offer diversification.
Competition from Novo Nordisk remains intense, with pricing dynamics and reimbursement trends in focus. Margin pressures from R&D investments (performance margin guided at 46-47.5%) and tax rate (18-19%) warrant attention. Broader industry shifts in obesity care, including oral formulations, could shape long-term growth. I'm watching these closely for what they mean for LLY.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
LLY in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +10.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 258 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 231 of 297 cases where LLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (37.123) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-1.476). P/E Ratio (47.269) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.871). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.170) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
Advertisement