Eli Lilly (LLY) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: +39.7% Revenue Growth on the Horizon
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $17.78 billion, up 39.7% year-over-year from $12.73 billion in Q1 2025.
- Consensus non-GAAP EPS forecast at $7.26, reflecting robust demand for key products.
- Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), both based on tirzepatide, are expected to drive the majority of growth.
- Company's full-year 2026 guidance projects revenue of $80-83 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $33.50-35.00.
- Investors watching for updates on manufacturing capacity and competition from rivals like Novo Nordisk.
- LLY shares have historically risen after 7 of the last 12 earnings reports, averaging +1.4% the day after.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Eli Lilly's Q1 2026 earnings, due April 30, arrive amid surging demand for its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for diabetes and weight management). Mounjaro and Zepbound have propelled revenue growth, with full-year 2025 sales hitting $65.2 billion, up 45%. From what I see, this report matters because it will signal progress on supply chain improvements and market share gains against competitor Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy. For investors, it offers insights into sustained pricing power, pipeline advancements like Kisunla for Alzheimer's, and execution on 2026 guidance amid the obesity treatment boom.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street anticipates first-quarter 2026 revenue of $17.78 billion, a 39.7% jump from Q1 2025's $12.73 billion, fueled by incretin (GLP-1/GIP) therapies. Consensus non-GAAP EPS is pegged at $7.26, up significantly from Q1 2025's reported figures.
Key metrics to watch include Mounjaro and Zepbound sales, which totaled over $11 billion combined in Q4 2025 alone (Mounjaro $7.4 billion, Zepbound $4.3 billion). Oncology drug Verzenio (for breast cancer) and diabetes staple Trulicity remain steady contributors. Eli Lilly has consistently beaten revenue estimates recently, though Q1 2025 EPS slightly missed. Stock reactions have been positive on beats, with focus now on volume growth amid easing supply constraints. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into Q1 earnings, sentiment around Eli Lilly is optimistic, buoyed by strong Q4 2025 results and upbeat 2026 guidance. Shares have shown resilience despite broader market volatility. Historically, LLY has posted gains after most earnings, with an average +1.4% move the day after over the last 12 reports. Risks include potential guidance caution on manufacturing ramps or competitive pressures, which could temper upside. Implied volatility suggests a potential 5-7% swing post-earnings.
A Tool I Rely On: Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I use regularly in my analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps me filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. It lets me scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics—making it far more efficient than manual screening for spotting trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and opportunities. I find it particularly useful for setups like LLY ahead of earnings.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following Q1 results, investors should track updates to full-year 2026 guidance of $80-83 billion in revenue and $33.50-35.00 non-GAAP EPS. Progress on expanding manufacturing for Mounjaro and Zepbound will be crucial, as supply improvements could unlock pent-up demand. One thing that stands out to me is how this could shape the trajectory.
Pipeline catalysts include Kisunla (donanemab for Alzheimer's), recently launched, and other candidates in immunology and oncology. Oncology sales, led by Verzenio at $1.6 billion in Q4 2025, offer diversification.
Competition from Novo Nordisk remains intense, with pricing dynamics and reimbursement trends in focus. Margin pressures from R&D investments (performance margin guided at 46-47.5%) and tax rate (18-19%) warrant attention. Broader industry shifts in obesity care, including oral formulations, could shape long-term growth. I'm watching these closely for what they mean for LLY.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
LLY's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for LLY moved out of oversold territory on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 57 cases where LLY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +1.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 263 of 375 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LLY as a result. In 45 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LLY turned negative on August 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
LLY moved below its 50-day moving average on August 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LLY entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (30.303) is normal, around the industry mean (19.050). P/E Ratio (38.702) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.258). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.139) is also within normal values, averaging (5.614). LLY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.006) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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