Emphase Energy (ENPH, $146.97) stock drops after weak guidance
Enphase Energy shares fell on Wednesday, following the company’s disappointing guidance for the second quarter on challenges to semiconductor component supply.
Enphase. which makes microinverters for solar systems, reported adjusted earnings of $0.56 per share for the quarter ended March, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.41 per share. Earnings were $0.38 per share a year ago.
Revenues of $301.75 million exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.08%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $205.55 million.
However, the company’s weak second-quarter guidance led to its shares falling. It expects sales to come in between $300 million and $320 million during the second quarter, compared to analysts’ projections of $320.7 million (based on FactSet data).
“Looking to Q2, our shipment volumes will be constrained by semiconductor component availability,” Enphase President and CEO Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman said during the company’s earnings call.
“Although we are increasing the capacity of solar microinverters every quarter and the demand is increasing every quarter, the supply is unable to keep up with demand because of semiconductor constraints, component constraints,” Kothandaraman added. This will lead to a “slower ramp” beginning in the third quarter, he indicated.
ENPH's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ENPH moved out of oversold territory on May 08, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 30, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ENPH as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ENPH just turned positive on May 15, 2023. Looking at past instances where ENPH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ENPH advanced for three days, in of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 358 cases where ENPH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where ENPH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ENPH moved below its 50-day moving average on April 26, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ENPH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 01, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ENPH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ENPH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 30, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ENPH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ENPH's P/B Ratio (24.570) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.876). P/E Ratio (51.020) is within average values for comparable stocks, (75.189). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.096) is also within normal values, averaging (2.063). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.634) is also within normal values, averaging (92.731).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a manufacturer of solar micro-inverter systems
Industry ElectricalProducts
ENPH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ENPH has been closely correlated with SEDG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ENPH jumps, then SEDG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ENPH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENPH | 100% | +5.40% | ||
| SEDG - ENPH | 76% Closely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| SPWR - ENPH | 73% Closely correlated | +6.23% | ||
| NOVA - ENPH | 69% Closely correlated | +7.28% | ||
| RUN - ENPH | 68% Closely correlated | +6.65% | ||
| ARRY - ENPH | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.26% | ||
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