Energy Sector SPDR hitting downward sloped trend line
Recently I have written several articles about energy stocks and all of them have been bearish in nature. The stocks have been trending lower and there are a number of them that have poor fundamentals. Tonight, the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) caught my attention, or at least the chart did.
The XLE was on a bearish scan that I run each night and as I scrolled through the charts, I couldn’t help but notice how the highs from April, July, and the last two days all connected very nicely with a downward sloped trend line. I also took it upon myself to draw a parallel line to see if the lows connected to form a trend channel. They do to some degree, but the lower rail isn’t nearly as clean as the upper rail.
We see that the overbought/oversold indicators are both at overbought levels and the stochastic readings just made a bearish crossover on September 11.
In addition to the bearish crossover from the stochastic readings, the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview shows that the higher Bollinger Band was broken. A price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, and that invites the trader to consider shorting the XLE, or exploring put options. In 25 of 29 cases where XLE's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 86%.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on the XLE on September 9. The signal showed a confidence level of 62% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on the ETF have been successful 85% of the time.
One of the reasons the energy stocks keep catching my eye is because of the poor fundamentals. When I run my scans each night, there is a bullish list and a bearish list and those scans are based on technical factors. After I get these lists, I run another scan on Investor’s Business Daily to get fundamental ratings using the EPS rating and the SMR ratings as a basic overview of a how a stock is doing fundamentally. I also check Tickeron’s technical analysis and fundamental analysis overviews.
When I saw the XLE on the bearish list, I ran a scan for the top 10 holdings in the ETF to get the EPS rating and the SMR rating from IBD. I put together the following table from that scan.
The average EPS rating of the top 10 holdings in the XLE is 27.8 and that shows poor earnings growth for the sector as a whole. I assigned a number to the SMR rating—5 for an A, 4 for a B, 3 for a C, etc. The average SMR rating is a C+ or 3.5. This shows slightly better than average sales growth, profit margins, and ROEs for this group.
Overall, the fundamental picture for the energy sector isn’t very good based on these findings.
Something else to keep in mind regarding oil and energy stocks is that oil itself has been the subject of geopolitical developments recently. Okay, oil is always the subject of geopolitical developments, but current tensions seem to be elevated with different ships being held in the Persian Gulf.
There are also some that believe the sanctions on Iran will be eased after the firing/resignation of National Security Adviser John Bolton. If the sanctions are eased, there will be more oil on the market or an increase in supply. Oil dropped 2.5% on September 11.
XLE sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
XLE saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 01, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLE moved out of overbought territory on March 31, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLE as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLE moved below its 50-day moving average on April 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLE advanced for three days, in of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 349 cases where XLE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Category Energy
Advertisement