Exelixis (EXEL) hit the lower rail of its upward sloped trend channel ahead of earnings
Biotech firm Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL) has been trending higher since the end of October. There have been cycles within the overall upward trend and those cycles have created a trend channel. The lows from October and December connect to form the lower rail. The highs from November and January connect to form the upper rail. The stock hit the lower rail of the channel on February 8 and that was just ahead of the company’s earnings report on February 12.
The oscillators were both low with the 10-day RSI close to oversold territory and the daily stochastic readings were in oversold territory. The stochastic readings just made a bullish crossover at the close on the 12th. That pattern looks similar to what we saw at the end of December.
Tickeron’s A.I. Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Exelixis on February 11. That prediction showed a confidence level of 85% for a move of 4% or more within the next month and 86% of the predictions of this kind have been successful in the past.
The company reported earnings after the close on February 12 and the results were better than analysts’ estimates. The company earned $0.37 per share which beat the consensus estimate of $0.25. Exelixis reported revenue of $228.6 million and that beat the estimate of $195.7 million.
Exelixis has seen its sales grow at a rate of 212% per year over the last three years. Earnings grew by 208% in the quarter and sales were up 48%. The company boasts a return on equity of 82.4% and a profit margin of 35%. It is also worth noting that the company doesn’t have any long-term debt.
EXEL's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EXEL turned positive on June 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where EXEL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 57 cases where EXEL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 23, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EXEL as a result. In of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EXEL advanced for three days, in of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EXEL moved out of overbought territory on June 25, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EXEL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
EXEL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EXEL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.669) is normal, around the industry mean (16.395). P/E Ratio (20.228) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.556). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.618) is also within normal values, averaging (2.311). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.624) is also within normal values, averaging (259.528).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a developer of small molecule therapies for the treatment of cancer
Industry Biotechnology
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