Biotech firm Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL) has been trending sharply higher since the end of October and a trend channel has formed that defines the up and down cycles within the overall upward trend. The lower rail of the channel is formed by the lows in October and December while the upper rail is formed by the highs in December and January. The stock has been grinding sideways with a slight downward bias since mid-January and that has allowed the lower rail of the channel to catch up to the stock price.
With the stock hitting the lower rail it looks as if the next upward cycle is underway. We see that the daily stochastic readings made a bullish crossover on February 25 as the stock moved back above its 50-day moving average.
The upward cycle that started in October and ended in early December saw the stock gain over 65% from the high to the low. The upward cycle that started in late December and ran through mid-January saw the stock gain over 40%. Expecting another move like that might be asking too much, but it isn’t out of the question.
The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Exelixis on February 22. That prediction came with a 75% confidence level for a move of at least 4% to the upside. Previous predictions of this nature have been successful 84% of the time.
The company’s fundamentals are really good as earnings and sales have grown tremendously in recent years. Earnings have grown by an average of 503% per year over the last three years while sales have averaged annual growth of 193% over that same period.
Exelixis sports a return on equity of 56.7% and a profit margin of 35%. The company has no long-term debt.
EXEL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on May 01, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 86 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EXEL moved out of overbought territory on March 28, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 26 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 69 cases where EXEL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EXEL turned negative on May 01, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
EXEL moved below its 50-day moving average on May 01, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EXEL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for EXEL entered a downward trend on May 02, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EXEL advanced for three days, in of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
EXEL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EXEL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.028) is normal, around the industry mean (10.278). P/E Ratio (34.031) is within average values for comparable stocks, (117.497). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.635) is also within normal values, averaging (1.470). EXEL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (3.788) is also within normal values, averaging (228.315).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EXEL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a developer of small molecule therapies for the treatment of cancer
Industry Biotechnology