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Feb 28, 2019

Exelixis gets a bullish signal as it hit the lower rail of an upward sloped channel

Biotech firm Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL) has been trending sharply higher since the end of October and a trend channel has formed that defines the up and down cycles within the overall upward trend. The lower rail of the channel is formed by the lows in October and December while the upper rail is formed by the highs in December and January. The stock has been grinding sideways with a slight downward bias since mid-January and that has allowed the lower rail of the channel to catch up to the stock price.

With the stock hitting the lower rail it looks as if the next upward cycle is underway. We see that the daily stochastic readings made a bullish crossover on February 25 as the stock moved back above its 50-day moving average.

The upward cycle that started in October and ended in early December saw the stock gain over 65% from the high to the low. The upward cycle that started in late December and ran through mid-January saw the stock gain over 40%. Expecting another move like that might be asking too much, but it isn’t out of the question.

The Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Exelixis on February 22. That prediction came with a 75% confidence level for a move of at least 4% to the upside. Previous predictions of this nature have been successful 84% of the time.

The company’s fundamentals are really good as earnings and sales have grown tremendously in recent years. Earnings have grown by an average of 503% per year over the last three years while sales have averaged annual growth of 193% over that same period.

Exelixis sports a return on equity of 56.7% and a profit margin of 35%. The company has no long-term debt.

Related Ticker: EXEL

EXEL's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Indicator for EXEL moved out of overbought territory on March 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 26 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 26 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 11, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EXEL as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EXEL turned negative on April 02, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EXEL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EXEL advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

EXEL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 277 cases where EXEL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.056) is normal, around the industry mean (10.191). P/E Ratio (35.108) is within average values for comparable stocks, (116.072). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.686) is also within normal values, averaging (1.451). EXEL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.016). P/S Ratio (4.008) is also within normal values, averaging (221.489).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. EXEL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EXEL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Incyte Corp (NASDAQ:INCY), Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (NASDAQ:ADPT), Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR).

Industry description

Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Biotechnology Industry is 2.54B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 219 to 559.84B. NONOF holds the highest valuation in this group at 559.84B. The lowest valued company is COTQF at 219.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was -5%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 0%, and the average quarterly price growth was 1,235%. CALA experienced the highest price growth at 150%, while MRNS experienced the biggest fall at -86%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was 91%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 0% and the average quarterly volume growth was 85%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 87
Price Growth Rating: 83
SMR Rating: 94
Profit Risk Rating: 94
Seasonality Score: -3 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a developer of small molecule therapies for the treatment of cancer

Industry Biotechnology

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Biotechnology
Address
1851 Harbor Bay Parkway
Phone
+1 650 837-7000
Employees
1310
Web
https://www.exelixis.com
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