GET DAILY SIGNALSFair Isaac (FICO) Reports +27% Revenue Growth in Q4 Fiscal 2026
Key Takeaways
- Fair Isaac (FICO) reported fourth quarter fiscal 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026) revenue of $657.0 million, up 27% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate of about $651.7 million.
- GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $8.12, below the $8.89 consensus, while non-GAAP diluted EPS of $11.10 exceeded estimates by a wide margin.
- Results were shaped by three one-time items: a $65 million antitrust settlement accrual, a $27 million restructuring charge, and a $48 million non-operating gain on an equity investment sale.
- The Scores segment led the way, with revenue up 33% to $413.8 million, driven by a 39% jump in business-to-business (B2B) revenue on higher mortgage origination score unit pricing.
- Management declined to provide fiscal 2027 guidance, pointing to an uncertain mortgage market and pricing programs still being finalized.
- For more context on the company, explore its Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages.
- To discover more data-driven market ideas, explore Trending AI Robots.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Fair Isaac Corporation, best known for its widely used FICO credit scores, occupies a unique position at the intersection of consumer credit and enterprise analytics software. Its quarterly results offer a read on mortgage origination demand, consumer credit activity, and the health of lending markets more broadly. The fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 carries extra weight because it completes the company's full fiscal year and arrives during a period of elevated interest rates and affordability pressures that have weighed on mortgage volume. Investors closely track the Scores business, where pricing power has offset weaker unit volumes, and the Software segment's shift toward a higher-growth platform model. The quarter's unusual mix of settlement, restructuring, and investment gains makes the underlying operating trend especially important to interpret. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
Fair Isaac reported fourth quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $657.0 million, a 27% increase from $515.8 million in the prior-year period and above the consensus estimate of roughly $651.7 million. GAAP net income totaled $175.0 million, or $8.12 per diluted share, compared with $155.0 million, or $6.42 per share, a year earlier. Non-GAAP net income reached $239.3 million, or $11.10 per diluted share, versus $187.0 million, or $7.74 per share, in the prior year.
The gap between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS reflects three significant items. A $65 million accrual was recorded for a proposed settlement of antitrust class action lawsuits tied to the Scores business, and a $27 million restructuring charge was taken in connection with a workforce reduction plan. These were partially offset by a $48 million non-operating gain on the sale of a minority equity investment. Excluding these items, non-GAAP EPS of $11.10 came in well above the roughly $8.89 consensus. From what I see in the segment breakdown, Scores revenue rose 33% to $413.8 million, with B2B revenue up 39% on higher mortgage origination score unit pricing, partially offset by lower origination volume. Software revenue grew 19% to $243.2 million, and Software Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) rose 14% year over year, driven by a 72% increase in platform ARR.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The market's initial response was cautious. Shares of FICO declined in after-hours trading following the November 4 release, as investors weighed the lower GAAP EPS figure, the antitrust settlement accrual, and the absence of fiscal 2027 guidance against otherwise strong revenue growth and a substantial non-GAAP EPS beat. The mixed nature of the report—strong top-line momentum and powerful Scores pricing offset by one-time charges and lingering mortgage uncertainty—left sentiment divided heading into the company's earnings call.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, several factors will shape investor expectations. First is the mortgage environment. Fair Isaac is deliberately transitioning toward bespoke mortgage origination pricing tailored to individual customers, including its FICO Preferred Program. Because many of these agreements are still being finalized, and because elevated interest rates and affordability challenges continue to pressure origination volumes, management declined to issue fiscal 2027 guidance. This leaves investors with less visibility into the durability of Scores pricing gains. I’m watching this closely as the platform transition in Software continues to unfold, with platform ARR up 72% year over year while non-platform ARR declined 18%.
Finally, the antitrust settlement accrual and the restructuring program bear watching. The proposed settlement, if finalized, could resolve a long-standing legal overhang, while the workforce reduction plan may reshape near-term expense levels. Free cash flow, which reached $284.3 million for the quarter, up from $210.8 million a year earlier, offers evidence of strong cash generation despite these pressures. Together, these signals point to a company with notable momentum and a handful of unresolved items that could influence results in the quarters ahead.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my own research process, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter stocks by fundamentals, technical patterns, and AI-driven signals. It helps surface comparable names quickly and puts earnings-driven moves like this one into broader context without manual effort. The tool has become a regular part of how I evaluate setups after reports like FICO’s.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FICO in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 29, 2026
FICO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 37 cases where FICO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FICO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 52 cases where FICO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FICO just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where FICO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +1.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FICO advanced for three days, in 277 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FICO as a result. In 47 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FICO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for FICO entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-3.818) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.902). P/E Ratio (20.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.583). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.671) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.794) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FICO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FICO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a provider of enterprise decision management solutions
Industry PackagedSoftware
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