Fed Hikes Rate the Fourth Time in 2018, by 25 Basis Points
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hiked policy interest rate for the fourth time this year. The target fed funds rate – the interest rate at which banks can lend each other overnight – now stands at 2.25-2.5%, after the latest quarter-point increase.
The highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet also brought to fore potential challenges and pressures facing the central bank. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated "cross-currents emerging" which led most officials to temper their economic growth forecast for 2019. There would possibility be two rate hikes next year, which is fewer than previously expected – as hinted by Powell. As of the latest meeting, only six FOMC participants expect there could be as many as three.
Nevertheless, the Fed is still keen on letting fresh data guide their rate hike decisions going forward as well. The Fed does have a delicate task on hand : tightening credit to prevent overheating, but without stoking recessionary pressures.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted, requesting the Fed to be wary of further rate hikes so as to not make markets any more “illiquid”.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SPY in -1.09% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SPY declined for three days, in 201 of 263 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In 67 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in 301 of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 357 of 424 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 84%.
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