Fed minutes indicate risks from trade war; markets jump on hopes of interest rate cut
Stocks jumped to record highs Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments seemed to strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing.
The latest minutes released from Federal Open Market Committee indicate their perception of trade uncertainty posing risks to their economic growth and inflation projections. Powell's comments indicate that trade tensions and concerns about the global economy have challenged the policymakers' outlook on the U.S. economy. In prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Powell said business investments in the nation have slowed “notably” recently against economic outlook uncertainties.
However, Powell also mentioned that the U.S. economy remains healthy.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are anticipating a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in July.
The S&P 500 briefly jumped above 3,000 for the first time. But later in the session it pared back its move to below 3,000, up 0.4%
Momentum Indicator for SPY turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SPY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on April 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 75 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 75 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on April 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on April 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on April 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on April 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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