GET DAILY SIGNALSFirefly Aerospace (FLY) Faces +78% Upside to Reach $37 Analyst Target
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $37 is the arithmetic mean of eight recent, verifiable analyst price targets for Firefly Aerospace (FLY).
- With the stock last trading near $20.76, reaching $37 would require a rise of roughly 78% — a very large move.
- The analyst target range is wide, from $25 (Wells Fargo) to $50 (B. Riley Securities), reflecting genuine disagreement about the company's growth path.
- The strongest supports are a $1.3 billion rocket-engine agreement with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and selection for NASA's CLPS 2 lunar initiative, alongside rapid revenue growth.
- The biggest risks are ongoing losses (a roughly $370 million trailing net loss), execution uncertainty, and a volatile post-IPO trading history.
- You can explore the ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings on dedicated pages.
- For automated market insights, explore Trending AI Robots.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
The $37 target reflects eight recent, individually attributable analyst price targets rather than a single published consensus. The arithmetic mean is about $37.25, rounded to a clean $37. The range is unusually wide — from $25 to $50 — which signals how differently analysts weigh the same fundamental story. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
On the bullish side, Roth MKM (Buy, $45, September 2026), B. Riley Securities (Buy, $50, August 2026), J.P. Morgan (Buy/Overweight, $40, August 2026), and Jefferies (Buy, $35, August 2026) emphasize contract momentum and revenue scaling. More cautious views come from Morgan Stanley (Hold, $37, September 2026), Barclays (Hold, $34, initiated October 2026), Goldman Sachs (Hold, $32, cut from $34 in October 2026), and Wells Fargo (Hold, $25, August 2026), which focus on profitability and execution risk.
Recent revisions have been mostly downward. Jefferies trimmed its target from $52 to $35 in August, and Goldman Sachs moved from $34 to $32 in October, even as new coverage from Barclays and B. Riley arrived. These cuts reflect rising discount rates and more conservative margin assumptions rather than a collapse in the core thesis.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Firefly Aerospace shares closed near $20.76 on November 6, 2026, after a sharp single-session gain. Reaching $37 would require an upside of approximately 78%, which is a very large move for a company that remains unprofitable.
Firefly operates across launch (Alpha and Eclipse vehicles), spacecraft (Blue Ghost lunar lander and Elytra orbital transfer vehicle), and defense software through its SciTec acquisition. Trailing revenue was about $287 million with a net loss near $370 million, and full-year 2025 revenue of roughly $160 million grew about 163% year over year. The path to $37 depends less on near-term valuation and more on converting a growing contract pipeline into sustained, higher-margin revenue while narrowing losses. From what I see, the upcoming earnings will be key to clarifying that trajectory.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Contract momentum: A more than $1.3 billion agreement to supply 36 engines, license engine IP, and provide engineering support to AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) provides multi-year revenue visibility.
- NASA exposure: Selection as a vendor for NASA's roughly $10 billion CLPS 2 lunar initiative positions Blue Ghost for larger cargo and infrastructure missions tied to the Artemis program.
- Defense demand: Rapid-response launch and hypersonics capabilities align with growing U.S. defense and Space Force spending priorities, including space-based interceptor and missile-warning programs.
- Revenue growth: Analysts project 2026 revenue around $420–450 million, roughly tripling the prior year, which supports a higher eventual multiple if execution holds.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Persistent losses: Negative earnings per share and heavy cash burn leave the company dependent on capital markets and milestone payments.
- Execution risk: Launch and lunar programs carry schedule, technical, and regulatory risk; any mission failure or delay could compress the stock's premium valuation.
- Valuation pressure: The shares trade at a high price-to-sales multiple on modest trailing revenue, leaving little room for disappointment.
- Volatility: The 52-week range of roughly $14.45 to $62.17 shows extreme swings, and the post-IPO float remains relatively new with limited trading history.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
Firefly trades roughly 67% below its 52-week high near $62.17, with the 52-week low near $14.45 acting as a durable support zone alongside the $14–$16 area. The November surge reclaimed the psychological $20 level, which now serves as near-term support. Resistance sits in the low-to-mid $20s, and the wide gap toward the mid-$30s means a move toward the $37 target would require a sustained trend reversal rather than a single breakout.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of about 12 months, though individual firms differ in their discount rates and growth assumptions. The next earnings report is scheduled for November 10, 2026, making third-quarter results and any guidance update the most immediate catalyst. Investors should also watch AST SpaceMobile milestone progress, NASA CLPS task orders, defense contract awards, cash burn versus the company's cash balance, and any further analyst target revisions. I'm watching this closely ahead of the report.
Final Assessment
Whether Firefly Aerospace can reach $37 depends on whether it can translate a rapidly expanding contract book into demonstrable operating progress. The central target, derived from eight analyst targets averaging roughly $37.25, sits well above the current price and reflects a wide $25–$50 range of opinion. Bullish analysts cite the AST SpaceMobile engine deal, NASA lunar selection, and triple-digit revenue growth, while cautious voices emphasize continued losses, high valuation, and execution uncertainty. Reaching the target would require a very large move of about 78%, making it achievable only if revenue growth, margin improvement, and contract execution consistently exceed expectations. There is no guarantee the shares will reach $37, and the outcome will hinge on upcoming earnings, guidance, and continued contract momentum.
Using Tickeron AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
In my own research process, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to monitor fast-moving names like this one. The tool scans thousands of stocks and ETFs in real time, delivering Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on technical behavior and market shifts. It serves as a useful complement to manual analysis when tracking contract news and earnings catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
FLY in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
The 10-day moving average for FLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 4 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for FLY entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FLY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 6 of 8 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 14 of 15 cases where FLY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FLY as a result. In 15 of 17 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FLY just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 5 of 8 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FLY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FLY advanced for three days, in 53 of 58 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
FLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.842) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-4.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.070) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.751) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FLY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a holding company, which through its subsidiaries engages in the business of aircraft leasing
Industry AerospaceDefense
Advertisement