First Horizon (FHN) vs. KeyCorp (KEY): What Q1 2026 Earnings Could Reveal for Regional Banks
Key Takeaways
- First Horizon (FHN) reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.49 and revenue of $869 million.
- KeyCorp (KEY) follows on April 16, forecasted at $0.41 EPS and $1.93 billion in revenue, signaling 24% EPS growth year-over-year.
- Both regional banks showed strength in Q4 2025: FHN beat with $0.52 EPS and 3.51% NIM (net interest margin, the difference between interest income and expense); KEY posted $0.41 adjusted EPS and $2.0 billion revenue.
- FHN edges on NIM efficiency at ~3.5%, while KEY leads in scale with larger revenue base and share repurchase plans.
- Loan growth and deposit stability key for both amid regional banking focus on Southeast and Midwest markets.
- Tickeron AI sees balanced positioning, with focus on NII (net interest income, core earnings from lending) trends.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
As I look ahead to the upcoming earnings season, regional banks like First Horizon (FHN) and KeyCorp (KEY) stand out for their operations in competitive U.S. markets, serving commercial, consumer, and wealth clients mainly in the Southeast and Midwest/Northeast. These reports provide valuable insights into NII resilience, loan demand, deposit costs, and credit quality against the backdrop of interest rate dynamics. FHN, based in Memphis, focuses on specialty lending and mortgage, while KEY, headquartered in Cleveland, draws strength from broader commercial banking. In my view, comparing their Q1 2026 previews underscores operational efficiencies, growth potential, and risks such as NCOs (net charge-offs, loan losses after recoveries), positioning them as solid benchmarks for investors tracking regional banks.
First Horizon Focus
First Horizon (FHN) is set to release Q1 2026 results on April 15 before the market opens, with a 9:30 AM ET conference call to follow. Analysts project EPS of $0.49-$0.50 (up from $0.42 a year ago) and revenue around $870 million, indicating modest growth. One thing that stands out is the focus on NIM stability near 3.5%, following Q4 2025's 3.51% with $676 million NII and 2% sequential loan growth to ~$40 billion. Deposits increased by $2 billion in Q4, while interest-bearing costs declined to 2.53%. ROTCE (return on tangible common equity, profitability on tangible capital) reached 15% in late 2025. Provision expense and NCOs (19 bps in Q4) will draw attention amid stable asset quality. Management has guided for 3-7% 2026 revenue growth, with an emphasis on expense control.
KeyCorp Context
KeyCorp (KEY) will report Q1 2026 on April 16, accompanied by a 10:00 AM ET call. Consensus estimates point to $0.41 EPS (a 24% YoY increase from $0.33) and $1.93 billion revenue (up ~9%). In Q4 2025, the bank delivered adjusted $0.41 EPS (beating the $0.39 estimate), $2.0 billion revenue (12% adjusted YoY growth), and NIM of 2.8%. Full-year 2025 revenue reached a record $7.5 billion (16% adjusted growth). CET1 (common equity tier 1, core capital ratio) was at 10.3%, supporting $1.2 billion+ in 2026 repurchases. Loans and deposits remained steady; asset quality improved with declining delinquencies. For 2026, the outlook includes 7% revenue growth, 8-10% NII rise, and expenses growing at half that pace.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Both banks carry momentum into Q1 from their Q4 beats. FHN (~$12B market cap, ~$80B assets) holds a superior NIM (3.5% vs. KEY's 2.8%), which supports ROE ~11%, though its smaller scale limits diversification. KEY (~$20B market cap, ~$190B assets) benefits from greater volume, stronger fee income, and buybacks aimed at ROTCE expansion. Growth drivers include mortgage/warehouse lending for FHN and commercial expansion for KEY. Risks involve rate sensitivity (both are asset-sensitive) and NCOs, which remain stable at low teens bps. From what I see, sentiment leans toward FHN for efficiency and KEY for capital return; historically, Q1 beats have lifted shares 3-5%.
AI Screener
I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener in my own analysis—it's an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters like industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. It uncovers trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities far more efficiently than manual methods. I've used it to explore potential edges in regional banks like FHN and KEY, and it consistently sharpens my research process.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI slightly favors First Horizon (FHN) with a 55% probability for near-term outperformance, highlighting superior NIM stability and ROTCE trajectory over KEY's scale advantages. I'm watching Q1 NII and guidance closely for confirmation; both present value in the regional banking recovery.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FHN's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for FHN entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 99 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 56 of the 99 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FHN as a result. In 42 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FHN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FHN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 50 cases where FHN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FHN just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where FHN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +1.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FHN advanced for three days, in 180 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
FHN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.295) is normal, around the industry mean (1.322). P/E Ratio (11.149) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.548). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.186). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.448) is also within normal values, averaging (3.739).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FHN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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