GAP (GPS, $18.11) disappoints on Q3 earnings
Gap posted third quarter earnings that missed analysts’ expectations.
The clothing retail company’s earnings came in at 27 cents compared to 50 cents expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.
Revenue of $3.94 billion also fell short of $4.44 billion expected.
Gap’s inventories were down -1% at the end of the third quarter from a year ago. They were flat versus 2019. The company expects fourth-quarter inventories to be up high-single digits year over year.
Looking ahead, Gap expects full-year revenue to increase about 20%, vs. its prior forecast of about a 30% increase. Analysts polled by Refinitiv were expecting a 28.4% year-over-year gain.
Gap now projects adjusted full-year earnings to a range of $1.25 to $1.40 per share, lower than prior range of $2.10 to $2.25 a share. Analysts had expected $2.20 per share (based on Refinitiv data). The company said that the downward revision in outlook incorporates the $550 million to $650 million of lost sales from supply chain constraints and about $450 million in air freight costs.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GAP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GAP turned positive on September 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where GAP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GAP as a result. In 59 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
GAP moved above its 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GAP advanced for three days, in 225 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GAP moved out of overbought territory on September 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 51 cases where GAP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
GAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.040) is normal, around the industry mean (3.366). P/E Ratio (6.913) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.247) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.499) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GAP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
an operator of stores that retail clothing, accessories and personal care products
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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