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May 28, 2021

Gap (GPS, $33.55) posts surprise Q1 profit

Gap  posted a surprise fiscal-first-quarter profit, and quarterly revenue that doubled from the year-ago period. The clothing company also raised its full-year guidance.

For the quarter ended May 1, Gap’s adjusted earnings came in at 48 cents a share, while analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted loss of -5 cents a share.

Revenue rose to $3.99 billion,  from $2.1 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $3.44 billion.

Comparable-store sales climbed +35% year-over-year at Old Navy Global, +29% at Gap Global and +27% at Athleta. However, same-store sales at Banana Republic fell -4% year-on-year.

For the full-year, Gap boosted its guidance on GAAP diluted earnings per share to a range of $1.55 to $1.70. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting $1.43 a share.

The company projects net sales growth between the low to mid 20% range for fiscal 2022, compared with its earlier guidance of mid-to-high teens percent.

 

 

 

Related Ticker: GPS

GPS's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 1 day

Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GPS advanced for three days, in of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 236 cases where GPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GPS as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GPS turned negative on February 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

GPS moved below its 50-day moving average on February 13, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.898) is normal, around the industry mean (4.002). P/E Ratio (174.727) is within average values for comparable stocks, (102.991). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.003) is also within normal values, averaging (1.329). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (2.051).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Gap (The) (NYSE:GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF), Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), Guess (NYSE:GES), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX).

Industry description

Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry is 12.24B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 256K to 119.4B. IDEXY holds the highest valuation in this group at 119.4B. The lowest valued company is DESTQ at 256K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was 0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 8%. CURV experienced the highest price growth at 12%, while DBGI experienced the biggest fall at -12%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was 17%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 23% and the average quarterly volume growth was -4%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 44
Price Growth Rating: 51
SMR Rating: 60
Profit Risk Rating: 74
Seasonality Score: -9 (-100 ... +100)
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GPSDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

an operator of stores that retail clothing, accessories and personal care products

Industry ApparelFootwearRetail

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Apparel Or Footwear Retail
Address
Two Folsom Street
Phone
+1 415 427-0100
Employees
95000
Web
https://www.gapinc.com
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GPS and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GPS has been loosely correlated with DBI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GPS jumps, then DBI could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To GPS
1D Price
Change %
GPS100%
+0.84%
DBI - GPS
56%
Loosely correlated
-3.26%
ROST - GPS
51%
Loosely correlated
+0.22%
BKE - GPS
51%
Loosely correlated
+1.48%
AEO - GPS
50%
Loosely correlated
-0.08%
SCVL - GPS
50%
Loosely correlated
-1.81%
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