Gilead Sciences (GILD): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $6.92 billion, up 3.4% from $6.67 billion in Q1 2025.
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $1.91 per share, reflecting a 5.5% increase year-over-year based on non-GAAP figures from prior year.
- HIV sales growth expected to offset potential declines in Veklury (remdesivir), with oncology and liver disease metrics in focus.
- Gilead has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, including a 2.82% surprise in Q4 2025.
- Full-year 2026 guidance projects product sales of $29.6-$30.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.45-$8.85.
- Earnings release scheduled for May 7, 2026, after market close, followed by conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As we approach Gilead Sciences (GILD) Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, I'm paying close attention to how the company navigates its HIV franchise amid the Medicare Part D redesign and the normalization of Veklury sales post-COVID. In my view, this report carries significant weight for investors evaluating the sustainability of growth in a maturing market. Recent performance has been resilient—Q4 2025 revenue reached $7.93 billion, surpassing estimates, largely thanks to HIV standouts like Biktarvy. Broader pressures in biotech, such as oncology competition and pipeline progress, make guidance updates particularly important. For long-term shareholders, insights into full-year prospects and innovations like lenacapavir-based HIV regimens could highlight enduring value.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's consensus points to Q1 2026 revenue of $6.92 billion, marking a 3.4% increase from $6.67 billion in Q1 2025, according to 21 analysts. The EPS estimate sits at $1.91, up from $1.81 non-GAAP in the year-ago quarter, drawn from 24 analysts. Steady demand for HIV treatments should drive this, with Biktarvy expected to hold strong despite payer mix shifts. One thing that stands out is Veklury sales, forecasted to decline from $757 million in Q1 2025, alongside oncology progress on Trodelvy. Liver disease contributions from Livdelzi (seladelpar) could provide some upside.
Gilead's recent history bolsters optimism—it has outperformed EPS expectations over the last four quarters, including Q1 2025 ($1.81 vs. $1.77) and Q4 2025 ($1.86 vs. $1.83). Stock reactions have varied; for instance, Q1 2025 brought a 3.4% after-hours decline despite the EPS beat, tied to a revenue shortfall. Reaffirmation of full-year 2026 guidance—product sales of $29.6-30.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.45-8.85—will be key to watch.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings feels cautiously optimistic, supported by Gilead's string of EPS beats and HIV steadiness. Shares are up about 27% over the past year, though they've pulled back lately with market rotation. Risks linger around Veklury fluctuations and oncology delivery; a revenue or guidance miss could weigh on the stock, much like after Q1 2025. Beats have typically led to modest gains, as with Q4 2025's positive response. Options pricing suggests around 5% volatility for the event.
To gauge how GILD stacks up, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare it against peers on fundamentals and trends.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research and trading, I turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs. It lets me filter thousands of assets using customizable criteria like technical patterns, fundamentals, volatility, and AI signals—far more efficiently than manual scans. Whether spotting breakout candidates or industry comparables, it streamlines finding opportunities. From what I see, it's a practical way to sharpen analysis before events like these earnings.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After earnings, the focus will shift to executing on FY 2026 guidance: $29.6-30.0 billion in product sales overall, with $29.0-29.4 billion ex-Veklury and $600 million from Veklury itself. This underscores reliance on HIV and diversification efforts.
HIV stays central, led by Biktarvy, though Medicare adjustments provide some headwinds. I'm watching updates on BIC/LEN (bictegravir/lenacapavir), now under FDA priority review with a PDUFA date in August 2026, which could broaden once-daily regimens. Long-acting options like six-monthly lenacapavir might transform prevention.
Oncology expansion through Trodelvy and launches like anito-cel (from the Arcellx acquisition) will be crucial, as will liver disease growth via Livdelzi. Cost controls back the non-GAAP EPS range of $8.45-8.85, with gross margins around 85-86%.
Pipeline highlights include inflammation programs and in vivo CAR-T. Key metrics to track: demand trends, margins, R&D spending post-acquisitions. Ultimately, balanced progress in HIV, oncology, and liver disease will shape the path ahead.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
GILD in -2.15% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 13, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where GILD declined for three days, in 130 of 275 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GILD as a result. In 36 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GILD turned negative on September 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 39%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GILD advanced for three days, in 215 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
GILD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 161 of 272 cases where GILD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (15.949) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (17.844) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.263) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.053) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. GILD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a developer of therapeutic products and treatments for life threatening diseases
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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