Gilead Sciences (GILD): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $6.92 billion, up 3.4% from $6.67 billion in Q1 2025.
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $1.91 per share, reflecting a 5.5% increase year-over-year based on non-GAAP figures from prior year.
- HIV sales growth expected to offset potential declines in Veklury (remdesivir), with oncology and liver disease metrics in focus.
- Gilead has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, including a 2.82% surprise in Q4 2025.
- Full-year 2026 guidance projects product sales of $29.6-$30.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.45-$8.85.
- Earnings release scheduled for May 7, 2026, after market close, followed by conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As we approach Gilead Sciences (GILD) Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, I'm paying close attention to how the company navigates its HIV franchise amid the Medicare Part D redesign and the normalization of Veklury sales post-COVID. In my view, this report carries significant weight for investors evaluating the sustainability of growth in a maturing market. Recent performance has been resilient—Q4 2025 revenue reached $7.93 billion, surpassing estimates, largely thanks to HIV standouts like Biktarvy. Broader pressures in biotech, such as oncology competition and pipeline progress, make guidance updates particularly important. For long-term shareholders, insights into full-year prospects and innovations like lenacapavir-based HIV regimens could highlight enduring value.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's consensus points to Q1 2026 revenue of $6.92 billion, marking a 3.4% increase from $6.67 billion in Q1 2025, according to 21 analysts. The EPS estimate sits at $1.91, up from $1.81 non-GAAP in the year-ago quarter, drawn from 24 analysts. Steady demand for HIV treatments should drive this, with Biktarvy expected to hold strong despite payer mix shifts. One thing that stands out is Veklury sales, forecasted to decline from $757 million in Q1 2025, alongside oncology progress on Trodelvy. Liver disease contributions from Livdelzi (seladelpar) could provide some upside.
Gilead's recent history bolsters optimism—it has outperformed EPS expectations over the last four quarters, including Q1 2025 ($1.81 vs. $1.77) and Q4 2025 ($1.86 vs. $1.83). Stock reactions have varied; for instance, Q1 2025 brought a 3.4% after-hours decline despite the EPS beat, tied to a revenue shortfall. Reaffirmation of full-year 2026 guidance—product sales of $29.6-30.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.45-8.85—will be key to watch.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings feels cautiously optimistic, supported by Gilead's string of EPS beats and HIV steadiness. Shares are up about 27% over the past year, though they've pulled back lately with market rotation. Risks linger around Veklury fluctuations and oncology delivery; a revenue or guidance miss could weigh on the stock, much like after Q1 2025. Beats have typically led to modest gains, as with Q4 2025's positive response. Options pricing suggests around 5% volatility for the event.
To gauge how GILD stacks up, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare it against peers on fundamentals and trends.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research and trading, I turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs. It lets me filter thousands of assets using customizable criteria like technical patterns, fundamentals, volatility, and AI signals—far more efficiently than manual scans. Whether spotting breakout candidates or industry comparables, it streamlines finding opportunities. From what I see, it's a practical way to sharpen analysis before events like these earnings.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After earnings, the focus will shift to executing on FY 2026 guidance: $29.6-30.0 billion in product sales overall, with $29.0-29.4 billion ex-Veklury and $600 million from Veklury itself. This underscores reliance on HIV and diversification efforts.
HIV stays central, led by Biktarvy, though Medicare adjustments provide some headwinds. I'm watching updates on BIC/LEN (bictegravir/lenacapavir), now under FDA priority review with a PDUFA date in August 2026, which could broaden once-daily regimens. Long-acting options like six-monthly lenacapavir might transform prevention.
Oncology expansion through Trodelvy and launches like anito-cel (from the Arcellx acquisition) will be crucial, as will liver disease growth via Livdelzi. Cost controls back the non-GAAP EPS range of $8.45-8.85, with gross margins around 85-86%.
Pipeline highlights include inflammation programs and in vivo CAR-T. Key metrics to track: demand trends, margins, R&D spending post-acquisitions. Ultimately, balanced progress in HIV, oncology, and liver disease will shape the path ahead.
Disclaimer
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GILD's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GILD turned positive on May 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where GILD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GILD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GILD advanced for three days, in of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GILD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GILD as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GILD declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for GILD entered a downward trend on April 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.901) is normal, around the industry mean (8.995). P/E Ratio (17.781) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.376). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.427). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.510) is also within normal values, averaging (3.661).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GILD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a developer of therapeutic products and treatments for life threatening diseases
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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