Graham Corporation (GHM): Record Backlog and Raised Guidance Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q4 fiscal 2026 EPS of $0.30 and revenue of about $60 million, per consensus estimates from five analysts.
- Company's full-year fiscal 2026 guidance raised to $233-239 million in net sales, implying strong Q4 contribution.
- Record backlog of $515.6 million at Q3 end, up 34% year-over-year, with 85% defense-related for revenue visibility.
- Graham has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a 69% surprise in Q3.
- Recent FlackTek acquisition expands portfolio; earnings call slated for early June 2026.
- Guidance includes $1-1.5 million tariff impact headwind.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Graham Corporation (GHM), a leader in mission-critical fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for defense, space, and energy markets, enters Q4 fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) with robust momentum. The company has delivered consistent revenue growth, with Q3 up 21% year-over-year to $56.7 million, fueled by defense demand and a record backlog. Recent acquisitions like FlackTek enhance its technology offerings amid rising geopolitical tensions boosting defense spending. In my view, this report will validate progress toward 8-10% organic growth goals and low-teens adjusted EBITDA margins by fiscal 2027. Missing guidance could pressure the stock, which has rallied significantly on prior beats.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street anticipates Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $59.95 million, a modest sequential increase from Q3's $56.7 million, with EPS at $0.30 on average from four analysts. This aligns closely with the company's updated full-year net sales guidance of $233-239 million, suggesting nine-month performance leaves room for a solid finish. Key metrics to watch include gross margins (guided 24-25%), adjusted EBITDA toward $24-28 million annually, and backlog conversion, with 35-40% expected in the next 12 months.
Graham's track record shows frequent beats: Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.31 topped estimates by 72%, Q1 by 93%. Historically, the stock has risen post-earnings on positive surprises, like 2.74% premarket after Q3 amid guidance raise. One thing that stands out is how investors will scrutinize defense order timing, acquisition integration, and tariff effects. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
AI Screener
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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into Q4 earnings, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by Q3's strong results and backlog growth. Shares climbed post-Q3 release, reflecting approval of the guidance hike and acquisition news. Risks include lumpy defense orders, FlackTek integration challenges, and tariff headwinds. Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with full-year EPS estimates at $1.37, implying 10% growth. Volatility could spike around the early June report, with beats likely extending the rally.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Graham's raised fiscal 2026 guidance underscores confidence in execution, targeting 24-25% gross margins and $24-28 million adjusted EBITDA despite tariffs. The $515.6 million backlog provides multi-year visibility, especially defense at 85%, amid U.S. budget increases. This is important because it offers clear revenue visibility.
Post-Q4, I'm watching FlackTek's contribution—acquired January 2026 for advanced mixing tech—and Xdot integration. Capital expenditures of $15-18 million support capacity expansion. Lower effective tax rate (16-18%) aids profitability.
Longer-term, strategic goals include 8-10% organic growth and mid-teens EBITDA margins by fiscal 2027. Upcoming catalysts: Q1 fiscal 2027 results, further orders, and defense program awards. Balanced demand across space, energy, and petrochemicals will be key amid supply chain pressures.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
Momentum Indicator for GHM turns negative, indicating new downward trend
GHM saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 101 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 69 of the 101 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
GHM moved below its 50-day moving average on August 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GHM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GHM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GHM just turned positive on September 17, 2026. Looking at past instances where GHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +3.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GHM advanced for three days, in 252 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
GHM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 237 of 294 cases where GHM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GHM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.133) is normal, around the industry mean (5.575). P/E Ratio (81.592) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.294). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.419) is also within normal values, averaging (1.856). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.693) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
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General Information
a manufacturer of vacuum and heat transfer equpiment
Industry IndustrialMachinery
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