GET DAILY SIGNALSGraham Corporation (GHM): Record Backlog and Raised Guidance Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q4 fiscal 2026 EPS of $0.30 and revenue of about $60 million, per consensus estimates from five analysts.
- Company's full-year fiscal 2026 guidance raised to $233-239 million in net sales, implying strong Q4 contribution.
- Record backlog of $515.6 million at Q3 end, up 34% year-over-year, with 85% defense-related for revenue visibility.
- Graham has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a 69% surprise in Q3.
- Recent FlackTek acquisition expands portfolio; earnings call slated for early June 2026.
- Guidance includes $1-1.5 million tariff impact headwind.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Graham Corporation (GHM), a leader in mission-critical fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for defense, space, and energy markets, enters Q4 fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) with robust momentum. The company has delivered consistent revenue growth, with Q3 up 21% year-over-year to $56.7 million, fueled by defense demand and a record backlog. Recent acquisitions like FlackTek enhance its technology offerings amid rising geopolitical tensions boosting defense spending. In my view, this report will validate progress toward 8-10% organic growth goals and low-teens adjusted EBITDA margins by fiscal 2027. Missing guidance could pressure the stock, which has rallied significantly on prior beats.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street anticipates Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $59.95 million, a modest sequential increase from Q3's $56.7 million, with EPS at $0.30 on average from four analysts. This aligns closely with the company's updated full-year net sales guidance of $233-239 million, suggesting nine-month performance leaves room for a solid finish. Key metrics to watch include gross margins (guided 24-25%), adjusted EBITDA toward $24-28 million annually, and backlog conversion, with 35-40% expected in the next 12 months.
Graham's track record shows frequent beats: Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.31 topped estimates by 72%, Q1 by 93%. Historically, the stock has risen post-earnings on positive surprises, like 2.74% premarket after Q3 amid guidance raise. One thing that stands out is how investors will scrutinize defense order timing, acquisition integration, and tariff effects. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
AI Screener
One tool I use regularly in my analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. It allows scanning thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. From my experience, it uncovers trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and opportunities more efficiently than manual methods. I find it valuable for sharpening my stock discovery process.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into Q4 earnings, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by Q3's strong results and backlog growth. Shares climbed post-Q3 release, reflecting approval of the guidance hike and acquisition news. Risks include lumpy defense orders, FlackTek integration challenges, and tariff headwinds. Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with full-year EPS estimates at $1.37, implying 10% growth. Volatility could spike around the early June report, with beats likely extending the rally.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Graham's raised fiscal 2026 guidance underscores confidence in execution, targeting 24-25% gross margins and $24-28 million adjusted EBITDA despite tariffs. The $515.6 million backlog provides multi-year visibility, especially defense at 85%, amid U.S. budget increases. This is important because it offers clear revenue visibility.
Post-Q4, I'm watching FlackTek's contribution—acquired January 2026 for advanced mixing tech—and Xdot integration. Capital expenditures of $15-18 million support capacity expansion. Lower effective tax rate (16-18%) aids profitability.
Longer-term, strategic goals include 8-10% organic growth and mid-teens EBITDA margins by fiscal 2027. Upcoming catalysts: Q1 fiscal 2027 results, further orders, and defense program awards. Balanced demand across space, energy, and petrochemicals will be key amid supply chain pressures.
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GHM's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GHM turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where GHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GHM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 16 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GHM as a result. In 86 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +0.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GHM advanced for three days, in 249 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
GHM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for GHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for GHM entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GHM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.319) is normal, around the industry mean (4.069). P/E Ratio (66.717) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.908). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.511) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.693) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
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General Information
a manufacturer of vacuum and heat transfer equpiment
Industry IndustrialMachinery
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