GET DAILY SIGNALSGraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) Falls -75.8% Over 30 Days After Intel Weakness
Key Takeaways
- INTW declined roughly 75.8% over the last 30 days, falling from about $23.51 to $5.70.
- The move was driven by Intel's third-quarter 2026 results, where weak fourth-quarter guidance triggered a roughly 28.6% single-day drop in INTC and an amplified decline of roughly 57% in the 2x-leveraged fund.
- Intel's cautious outlook reflected a soft PC market, supply constraints, and a temporary disruption at its Israel manufacturing site.
- Over the past quarter, INTW fell roughly 74%, pressured by a broader selloff across semiconductor and AI-related names.
- As a daily-reset leveraged product, INTW can compound losses materially over holding periods longer than a single day.
INTW Fund Overview and How It Fits in a Portfolio
INTW is the GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF, an exchange-traded fund that seeks daily investment results corresponding to two times (200%) the daily percentage change in the common stock of Intel Corporation (INTC). The fund is issued by GraniteShares, listed on the Nasdaq, and carries a net expense ratio of approximately 1.55%.
Because INTW is designed to deliver twice the single-day return of Intel, it is not a conventional long-term holding. Its exposure resets each trading day, meaning multi-day returns can diverge significantly from two times Intel's cumulative performance, particularly in volatile markets. Investors follow INTW primarily for tactical, leveraged exposure to Intel's share price rather than as a diversified core position. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to others in the leveraged ETF space.
INTW Price Action: The Last 30 Days and the Broader Quarter
Over the most recent 30-day window, INTW fell from a closing price of $23.51 on October 9 to $5.70 on November 10, a decline of roughly 75.8%. The overwhelming share of that loss occurred in a single session on October 30, when the fund dropped about 57% in the wake of Intel's earnings report.
The quarterly picture is similarly weak. From a closing level of about $22.31 in early August, INTW has fallen roughly 74%. The fund rallied to a local peak near $35.50 in late September before surrendering those gains and trading sharply lower through October and early November.
What Triggered the Sharp Move in Late October
The catalyst for the decline was Intel's third-quarter 2026 earnings, reported after the market close on October 29. Intel posted revenue of $16.51 billion, up 21% year over year and roughly in line with estimates, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.52 topped expectations. However, management guided fourth-quarter revenue to a range of $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, both well below analyst consensus of roughly $17 billion and $0.43.
Investors reacted sharply to the softer outlook. Intel shares fell about 28.6% on October 30, their largest single-day decline in roughly five decades, while INTW's 2x leverage amplified the move to roughly 57% in one session. The guidance reflected continued PC-market weakness, with client computing revenue down 5% year over year, alongside memory-cost inflation, supply constraints, and an operational incident at Intel's Kiryat Gat facility in Israel that management estimated would reduce fourth-quarter revenue by about $300 million and cut gross margin by roughly 200 basis points.
Several sell-side firms trimmed Intel price targets following the report, and the stock's decline rippled across the broader chip complex, with peers such as AMD and NVDA also trading lower in sympathy. From what I see, the reaction highlighted how quickly sentiment can shift when guidance disappoints in this sector.
Broader Pressures Behind the Quarterly Decline
The quarterly decline reflected more than a single earnings event. Semiconductor and AI-linked equities faced sustained pressure as investors reassessed the pace at which AI infrastructure spending would convert into cash flow. Concerns over financing costs and credit stress in parts of the AI-computing ecosystem weighed on sentiment, and technology-heavy names such as Alphabet and Amazon also sold off during October earnings.
For Intel specifically, the combination of a weak PC environment, rising memory prices, manufacturing disruptions, and a high-capex foundry strategy delayed expectations for a profitability inflection. Management described 2027 as an investment year, flagging that free cash flow could remain negative. That broader narrative, coupled with INTW's daily reset and leverage, drove the fund's pronounced multi-month drawdown. I’m watching this closely as the sector works through these adjustments.
Key Factors to Monitor Going Forward
Looking ahead, the primary driver for INTW remains Intel's fundamental trajectory. Investors will watch Intel's fourth-quarter results, expected in January 2027, for any revision to revenue and margin guidance, updates on PC-demand trends, and progress resolving supply and memory-cost headwinds. The recovery of Intel's Israel fab and the trajectory of its data center and AI segment will also be closely monitored.
Broader macro and market factors may continue to matter as well, including the path of interest rates, AI-related credit conditions, and sentiment across the semiconductor sector. Because INTW compounds daily, holding periods beyond one day can produce results that differ meaningfully from two times Intel's return, making timing and volatility important considerations for anyone evaluating the fund.
Using Tickeron AI Trading Bots for Volatility Analysis
In my own research process, I have found Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots helpful for reviewing automated strategies that navigate leveraged products like INTW. The platform offers a range of bots with different timeframes and risk parameters, allowing users to see how various approaches have performed in similar market conditions. This can provide additional perspective when assessing volatile names in the semiconductor space. Explore Tickeron AI Trading Bots to review current options.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
INTW's RSI Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 7 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +28.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where INTW advanced for three days, in 87 of 94 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
INTW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for INTW turned negative on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 13 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 11 of the 13 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
INTW moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for INTW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 5 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where INTW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for INTW entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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