Greenbrier Companies (The) (GBX, $30.21) is set to report earnings on April 10, and the expectations are that earnings will fall by a significant 908% to 50 cents per share. This news has already impacted the stock's performance, as GBX moved below its 50-day moving average on April 05, 2023, indicating a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
This shift in trend is concerning for investors who have been holding onto the stock in hopes of continued growth. In fact, historical data shows that in 28 of 34 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. This means that the odds of a continued downward trend are 82%, making it more likely that the stock price will continue to decrease rather than recover in the near term.
As a technical analyst, it's important to consider other key indicators in addition to the moving average to get a better sense of the stock's overall performance. For example, looking at GBX's Relative Strength Index (RSI) can provide insight into whether the stock is oversold or overbought. Currently, GBX's RSI is at 30.55, indicating that the stock is oversold and potentially undervalued. However, given the recent trend shift and the expected earnings report, this oversold condition may not be enough to reverse the downward trend.
Additionally, monitoring GBX's trading volume can provide insights into investor sentiment. If trading volume is increasing alongside the downward trend, it could indicate a significant bearish sentiment and further price drops may be likely. Conversely, if trading volume decreases and stabilizes, it could indicate that the stock is reaching a floor and may start to recover.
The expected earnings report for Greenbrier Companies (The) (GBX) is a significant indicator that the stock's performance will shift from an upward trend to a downward trend. The historical data indicates that the odds of a continued downward trend are high, and other key indicators such as the RSI and trading volume suggest that this trend may persist in the near term. As always, investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment goals before making any decisions about buying or selling GBX.
The RSI Oscillator for GBX moved out of oversold territory on May 05, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 42 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 17, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GBX as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GBX just turned positive on May 11, 2023. Looking at past instances where GBX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GBX advanced for three days, in of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 57 cases where GBX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GBX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GBX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 18, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GBX entered a downward trend on May 15, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.686) is normal, around the industry mean (1.995). P/E Ratio (23.041) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.391). GBX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.188). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.254) is also within normal values, averaging (2.935).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GBX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GBX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a manufacturer of and distributes railcars and related transportation equipment
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|MFS Mid Cap Growth R4|
|Sterling Capital Equity Income Instl|
|Lord Abbett Micro Cap Growth A|
|Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Y|
|Marsico International Opportunities Inst|
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GBX has been closely correlated with TRN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GBX jumps, then TRN could also see price increases.