Greif's (GEF, $34.48) $1.8 Billion Purchase of Caraustar Is Criticized By Analysts Over Leverage Concerns
Greif Inc.’s decision to acquire Caraustar Industries, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash was met with discouraging outlook from several credit ratings companies and analysts.
On Thursday, Greif, a manufacturer of industrial packaging, revealed that it is buying Caraustar from an affiliate of private equity firm H.I.G. Capital. The announcement led to Moody’s Investors Service considering a downgrade on Greif. Moody's said its review for the downgrade is based on "the significant incremental debt, change in risk profile and the integration risk inherent in the transaction." Also, BMO Capital Markets lowered Greif's rating from "Outperform" to a "Underperform."
Greif, however, said that the acquisition is expected to boost its earnings, margins and free cash flow, and to create annual cost synergies of at least $45 million within 36 months. According to the company, the addition of Caraustar would increase Greif's U.S. sales to roughly two thirds of total consolidated sales, from about half for fiscal 2018. Caraustar’s leadership in uncoated and coated recycled paperboards would help Greif expand its market, according to Greif.
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Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GEF in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on August 31, 2026
GEF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 40 cases where GEF's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 52 cases where GEF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +3.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GEF advanced for three days, in 187 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GEF moved out of overbought territory on August 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GEF as a result. In 52 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GEF turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for GEF entered a downward trend on September 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.560) is normal, around the industry mean (6.534). P/E Ratio (34.017) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.042). GEF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.922). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.862) is also within normal values, averaging (1.306).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of industrial packaging products and services
Industry ContainersPackaging
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