Greif's (GEF, $34.48) $1.8 Billion Purchase of Caraustar Is Criticized By Analysts Over Leverage Concerns
Greif Inc.’s decision to acquire Caraustar Industries, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash was met with discouraging outlook from several credit ratings companies and analysts.
On Thursday, Greif, a manufacturer of industrial packaging, revealed that it is buying Caraustar from an affiliate of private equity firm H.I.G. Capital. The announcement led to Moody’s Investors Service considering a downgrade on Greif. Moody's said its review for the downgrade is based on "the significant incremental debt, change in risk profile and the integration risk inherent in the transaction." Also, BMO Capital Markets lowered Greif's rating from "Outperform" to a "Underperform."
Greif, however, said that the acquisition is expected to boost its earnings, margins and free cash flow, and to create annual cost synergies of at least $45 million within 36 months. According to the company, the addition of Caraustar would increase Greif's U.S. sales to roughly two thirds of total consolidated sales, from about half for fiscal 2018. Caraustar’s leadership in uncoated and coated recycled paperboards would help Greif expand its market, according to Greif.
GEF in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on March 09, 2026
The 10-day moving average for GEF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 24 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GEF as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GEF turned negative on February 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
GEF moved below its 50-day moving average on March 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for GEF's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GEF advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GEF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 234 cases where GEF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.352) is normal, around the industry mean (3.707). P/E Ratio (28.798) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.079). GEF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.867). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.746) is also within normal values, averaging (1.315).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of industrial packaging products and services
Industry ContainersPackaging
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