Greif's (GEF, $34.48) $1.8 Billion Purchase of Caraustar Is Criticized By Analysts Over Leverage Concerns
Greif Inc.’s decision to acquire Caraustar Industries, Inc. for $1.8 billion in cash was met with discouraging outlook from several credit ratings companies and analysts.
On Thursday, Greif, a manufacturer of industrial packaging, revealed that it is buying Caraustar from an affiliate of private equity firm H.I.G. Capital. The announcement led to Moody’s Investors Service considering a downgrade on Greif. Moody's said its review for the downgrade is based on "the significant incremental debt, change in risk profile and the integration risk inherent in the transaction." Also, BMO Capital Markets lowered Greif's rating from "Outperform" to a "Underperform."
Greif, however, said that the acquisition is expected to boost its earnings, margins and free cash flow, and to create annual cost synergies of at least $45 million within 36 months. According to the company, the addition of Caraustar would increase Greif's U.S. sales to roughly two thirds of total consolidated sales, from about half for fiscal 2018. Caraustar’s leadership in uncoated and coated recycled paperboards would help Greif expand its market, according to Greif.
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Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for GEF turns negative, indicating new downward trend
GEF saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on August 18, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 85 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GEF moved out of overbought territory on August 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GEF turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GEF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 53 cases where GEF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GEF advanced for three days, in of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 237 cases where GEF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.666) is normal, around the industry mean (6.723). P/E Ratio (36.326) is within average values for comparable stocks, (29.593). GEF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.006). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.942) is also within normal values, averaging (1.356).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of industrial packaging products and services
Industry ContainersPackaging
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