Guess? hits upper rail of channel and generates a bearish signal
Fashion and clothing company Guess? (NYSE: GES) has been struggling over the past year. Looking at Investor’s Business Daily’s ratings’ system, the stock gets a composite score of only 16. The EPS rating is well below average at 29 and the Relative Price Strength is even worse at 18.
Over the last four months, a downward sloped trend channel has formed and the stock is hitting the upper rail of the channel at this time. We see that the upper rail connects the highs from March and May while the lower rail connects the lows from March, April, and June.
We see also that the stochastic readings are in overbought territory and just performed a bearish crossover on July 17. The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine also generated a bearish signal on the same date. The signal shows a confidence level of 76% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on Guess? have been successful 82% of the time.
Looking at the fundamentals for Guess? we see that the earnings declined by 9% in the most recent quarter and are expected to decline by 19.4% in the next report. The management efficiency measurements are also below average. The return on equity is only 9.2% and the profit margin is very low at 4.2%.
Aroon Indicator for GES shows an upward move is likely
GES's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on July 03, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 230 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 230 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 27, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GES as a result. In of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GES just turned positive on June 06, 2025. Looking at past instances where GES's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GES moved above its 50-day moving average on June 04, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GES advanced for three days, in of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GES declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GES broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 01, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.593) is normal, around the industry mean (3.964). P/E Ratio (10.809) is within average values for comparable stocks, (110.742). GES's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.444). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.839) is also within normal values, averaging (1.139).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GES’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GES’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a producer and a distributor of designer jeans and apparel
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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