Harley-Davidson Goes Slow on Margin Projection
Harley-Davidson Inc. pared back its 2018 profit margin forecast.
In a statement released Tuesday, the Milwaukee-based iconic motorcycle maker said that it has revised down its expectations for operating margin this year to 9-10% - compared to its previous forecast of 9.5-10.5%. The firm indicated the potential role of tariffs in raising costs and therefore eating away at profits as a reason behind the downward revision in margin projection.
Last month, Harley had expressed its willingness to shift some its production overseas in order to avoid the European Union’s tariffs on American goods. The EU tariffs were a retaliation to U.S. President Donald Trump’s levies on steel and aluminum imported from the EU. However, the motorcycle maker was severely criticized by Trump on its relocation plans.
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Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HMC sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for HMC moved above the 200-day moving average on August 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 72 cases where HMC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HMC as a result. In 55 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +3.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HMC advanced for three days, in 164 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 134 of 232 cases where HMC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HMC moved out of overbought territory on August 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HMC turned negative on August 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
HMC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.519) is normal, around the industry mean (8.819). P/E Ratio (10.238) is within average values for comparable stocks, (579.882). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.454) is also within normal values, averaging (3.047). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.298) is also within normal values, averaging (2.836).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HMC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.
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General Information
Manufactures automobiles and related components, engages in lawnmowers and generator production
Industry MotorVehicles
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