Hayward Holdings (HAYW) Drops -11.4% in 30 Days as Sentiment Turns Cautious
Key Takeaways
- Hayward Holdings (HAYW) shares declined about 11.4% over the last 30 days, closing at $12.63 on September 25, 2026, near the bottom of the stock's 52-week range.
- The pullback extends a longer multi-month downtrend, with the stock down roughly 23% over the past quarter from its late-June levels above $16.
- The decline has unfolded despite a solid fiscal second-quarter report, in which net sales rose 6% and adjusted diluted EPS grew 8% while full-year guidance was maintained.
- Cautious analyst positioning, continued insider selling, and a Delaware shareholder lawsuit have weighed on investor sentiment.
- Shares now trade below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and well under the consensus analyst price target of $17.50.
Hayward Holdings at a Glance
Hayward Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets pool equipment and outdoor living technology, plus industrial flow control products. Based in Charlotte, North Carolina, the company went public in March 2021 and reaches residential and commercial pool markets mainly through distributors, retailers, and pool professionals.
Its lineup includes energy-efficient pumps, filters, heaters, sanitizers, LED lighting, cleaners, water features, and automation controls, many tied together through connected platforms like the Omni system. The business hinges on the large installed base of pools, aftermarket replacement needs, and new construction, all of which respond to housing trends, consumer spending, and interest rates. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Recent Price Action for HAYW
Over the last 30 days, HAYW declined approximately 11.4%, falling from a close of $14.25 in late August to $12.63 as of September 25, 2026. The move was broadly downward, with shares grinding lower through most of September and touching the lower end of their 52-week range of roughly $12.63 to $17.73.
The longer-term picture is more pronounced. Over the past quarter, the stock has fallen about 23%, sliding from levels above $16 in late June to its current range. This sustained decline has left shares trading below their 50-day moving average near $14.37 and their 200-day moving average near $14.56, underscoring the negative momentum that has persisted through the period. From what I see, this positioning below key averages highlights the pressure on the name.
Drivers Behind the 30-Day Slide
Several factors contributed to the recent slide. On the analyst front, Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a "Peer Perform" rating in mid-September, a cautious stance reflecting a wait-and-see approach. The broader sell-side consensus remains a "Hold," with seven hold ratings and two buy ratings and an average 12-month price target of $17.50 — well above the current share price.
Insider activity has also drawn attention. The CEO sold 50,000 shares in early September, and a senior vice president and chief legal officer sold 3,500 shares in mid-September under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In total, insiders sold roughly $4.4 million worth of stock over the trailing 90 days, a pattern some investors interpret as a cautionary signal even though such sales can reflect diversification or tax planning. I’m watching this closely as part of the overall sentiment picture.
Additionally, a stockholder complaint filed in Delaware Chancery Court in early September alleged that the company and certain current and former directors concealed an inventory glut and weakening demand. Macroeconomic and sector pressures — including elevated interest rates, housing-market softness, and lingering input-cost inflation — also continued to weigh on the consumer-discretionary-linked pool equipment category.
Quarterly Performance and Fundamentals
The quarterly decline reflects a de-rating of the stock even as underlying fundamentals stayed resilient. In late July, Hayward reported second-quarter net sales of $318 million, up 6% year over year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.26, up 8% and above consensus. North America sales rose 9%, while Europe and Rest of World fell 8% on macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
However, gross margin declined 50 basis points to 48.7% as specialty metals, freight, and resin costs rose, and adjusted EBITDA margin slipped 40 basis points to 29.1%. Management cited tariffs, commodity inflation, and higher transportation costs as persistent headwinds, and noted that channel inventory is expected to build as the year progresses. Combined with seasonal factors — the third quarter is typically a lower-leverage period for pool equipment — these pressures contributed to the stock's downward drift from its summer peak.
What to Watch Next for HAYW
Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on Hayward's next quarterly earnings release and any updates to full-year guidance, which currently calls for net sales growth of approximately 5% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 13%. Key areas to monitor include North American aftermarket demand and the repair-versus-replace dynamic, channel inventory levels, and the pace of input-cost and tariff inflation.
Macroeconomic factors — particularly interest rates, housing activity, and consumer discretionary spending — will remain important demand drivers. The trajectory of the Europe and Rest of World segment, which has been pressured by geopolitical disruption, and any developments in the pending shareholder litigation also warrant attention. Analyst rating changes, insider transaction trends, and institutional positioning may continue to influence sentiment in the near term. One thing that stands out is how these elements could shape the next leg of the move.
AI Resources I Use for Stock Research
When evaluating names like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to test different strategies against historical data and see how they might align with current conditions. The platform’s range of bots lets me explore short-term momentum ideas alongside longer-horizon trend approaches, which helps me think through risk and timing without overcomplicating the process.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HAYW's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for HAYW moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 26 of the 33 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 66 cases where HAYW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HAYW just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where HAYW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HAYW advanced for three days, in 189 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
HAYW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for HAYW moved below the 200-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HAYW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for HAYW entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.658) is normal, around the industry mean (7.529). P/E Ratio (17.389) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.807). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.092) is also within normal values, averaging (2.900). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.005) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.460) is also within normal values, averaging (8.080).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. HAYW’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HAYW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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