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Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jul 08, 2019

Healthcare ETF trending lower and gets a bearish signal

The healthcare sector has been lagging the nine other main sectors since the beginning of 2019. The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV) gained 9.24% from the beginning of the year through July 5 and it is the only sector SPDR that has gained less than 10%. The sector has been in the political spotlight to some degree as politicians on both sides of the aisle have been pointing at drug costs as a problem.

One particular exchange-traded fund that caught my eye was the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (Nasdaq: IBB). The fund has been trending lower since last September and there is a trend line that connects the highs from then with highs from March and April. The fund just hit the trend line last week and then turned lower.

The ETF saw its 10-day RSI and its daily stochastic readings hit overbought levels last week before turning lower. The stochastic readings just made a bearish crossover on July 5.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for the IBB on July 5 and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 75% and past predictions on the fund have been successful 85% of the time.

Related Ticker: XLV

XLV sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line

XLV saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 02, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 02, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLV as a result. In of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XLV moved below its 50-day moving average on April 03, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for XLV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 10, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLV advanced for three days, in of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

XLV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE:LLY), Unitedhealth Group (NYSE:UNH), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK), ABBVIE (NYSE:ABBV), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), Elevance Health (NYSE:ELV).

Industry description

The investment seeks investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Health Care Select Sector Index. In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies from the following industries: pharmaceuticals; health care equipment & supplies; health care providers & services; biotechnology; life sciences tools & services; and health care technology. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Health Care Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF is 89.38B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 9.7B to 739.66B. LLY holds the highest valuation in this group at 739.66B. The lowest valued company is HSIC at 9.7B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Health Care Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was 0%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 9%. UNH experienced the highest price growth at 14%, while WAT experienced the biggest fall at -8%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Health Care Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was 7%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 21% and the average quarterly volume growth was -4%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51
P/E Growth Rating: 51
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 58
Profit Risk Rating: 48
Seasonality Score: -3 (-100 ... +100)
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XLVDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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