Healthcare ETF trending lower and gets a bearish signal
The healthcare sector has been lagging the nine other main sectors since the beginning of 2019. The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV) gained 9.24% from the beginning of the year through July 5 and it is the only sector SPDR that has gained less than 10%. The sector has been in the political spotlight to some degree as politicians on both sides of the aisle have been pointing at drug costs as a problem.
One particular exchange-traded fund that caught my eye was the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (Nasdaq: IBB). The fund has been trending lower since last September and there is a trend line that connects the highs from then with highs from March and April. The fund just hit the trend line last week and then turned lower.
The ETF saw its 10-day RSI and its daily stochastic readings hit overbought levels last week before turning lower. The stochastic readings just made a bearish crossover on July 5.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for the IBB on July 5 and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 75% and past predictions on the fund have been successful 85% of the time.
XLV in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on June 16, 2025
The 10-day moving average for XLV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 16, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLV just turned positive on May 28, 2025. Looking at past instances where XLV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLV advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 295 cases where XLV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 18, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLV as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLV moved below its 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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