Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) trending lower since November
The overall market recovered from the selling that hit in December and that led the S&P 500 to a new all-time high on May 1. But not all stocks and sectors have recovered fully from the December selloff. One sector that has yet to recover fully is the healthcare sector. The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV) peaked just above $90 back in November and it has yet to get back to that point.
In fact, if you connect the high from November with the highs from March and April, you can see the downward sloped trend line the ETF has formed. The fund moved above the trend line on June 11, but it was unable to close the above-said trend line.
We see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings both hit overbought readings in the past few days before turning lower. The stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on June 11 and in the recent past, such events were not a good sign for the fund.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine is also showing that the XLV may have a hard time in the coming days. The tool generated a bearish signal for the XLV on June 10 and the signal showed a confidence level of 70%. For the prediction to be successful, the fund will need to drop at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the XLV have been successful 84% of the time.
XLV's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for XLV moved out of oversold territory on November 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 27, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLV as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLV just turned positive on November 25, 2024. Looking at past instances where XLV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLV advanced for three days, in of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 66 cases where XLV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for XLV entered a downward trend on November 29, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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Category Health