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Feb 05, 2022

Hershey's (HSY, $202.88) beats Q4 earnings expectations

The Hershey Company posted  fourth-quarter  results, with both earnings and revenue beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

The chocolate maker’s adjusted earnings for the quarter grew +13.4% from the year-ago quarter to  $2.10 a share, surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.69.

Consolidated net sales climbed +6.4% year-over-year to $2,326.1 million, compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,265 million. Organic net sales on constant-currency basis rose +4%.

North America Confectionery segment net sales rose +4.9% year over year to $1,982.4 million. Price realization contributed to 4.3 points of growth. Volume led to a 1.1-point headwind due to price elasticity and reduced shipping days. Acquisition of Lily's and foreign exchange added to net sales by 1.5 points and 0.2 points, respectively.

The North America Salty Snacks segment’s net sales increased +38.9% year-over-year to $158.7 million. Price realization contributed 15.9 points, and volume contributed 3.9 points. The acquisitions of Dot's and Pretzels contributed 19.1 points to sales.

International segment’s net sales rose +1.7% year-over-year to $185 million. On constant currency basis, net sales increased +2%. Price realization contributed 19.7 points to sales while volume lent a  17.7-point headwind.

The company projects net sales growth in the band of 8-10% for 2022.  It expects adjusted earnings per share to increase 9-11%, and predicts reported earnings per share growth in the 7-10% range. For 2022, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $7.84-$7.98.

Related Ticker: HSY

HSY's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for HSY entered a downward trend on September 21, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 114 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 114 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 21, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HSY as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HSY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HSY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HSY just turned positive on August 25, 2023. Looking at past instances where HSY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HSY advanced for three days, in of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

HSY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.403) is normal, around the industry mean (10.059). P/E Ratio (23.697) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.858). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.629) is also within normal values, averaging (2.494). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.908) is also within normal values, averaging (29.097).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HSY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Kraft Heinz Company (The) (NASDAQ:KHC), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB), Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND).

Industry description

A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry is 7.75B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.25K to 327.81B. NSRGY holds the highest valuation in this group at 327.81B. The lowest valued company is OGGFF at 6.25K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. MDRNF experienced the highest price growth at 48%, while VICFF experienced the biggest fall at -40%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry was 1%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 3% and the average quarterly volume growth was 47%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 65
Price Growth Rating: 60
SMR Rating: 69
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: -16 (-100 ... +100)
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Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
Show details...
A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of chocolate, candy, chewing gum, non-confectionery products and snack foods

Industry FoodSpecialtyCandy

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Food Specialty Or Candy
Address
19 East Chocolate Avenue
Phone
+1 717 534-4200
Employees
19865
Web
https://www.thehersheycompany.com
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HSY and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with K. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then K could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
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Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To HSY
1D Price
Change %
HSY100%
-0.37%
K - HSY
61%
Loosely correlated
-0.52%
GIS - HSY
60%
Loosely correlated
+0.68%
CPB - HSY
58%
Loosely correlated
-0.52%
CAG - HSY
58%
Loosely correlated
-0.99%
MDLZ - HSY
57%
Loosely correlated
+1.23%
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