MENU
Go to the list of all blogs
Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jan 13, 2021

High Probability Bearish Signals Generated on 4 Homebuilders

The pandemic has changed the housing industry considerably in the past year. Consumers have changed their preferred living arrangements and that has created an increase in the demand for single-family homes.

Because of the increase in demand for homes, the stocks of homebuilders have rallied sharply since last March. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was below $25 at its low in March and it recently moved above the $60 level. That is a huge move for an ETF. With such a big move, many of the stocks have moved in to overbought territory and we see that the weekly stochastic indicators for the XHB are in overbought territory. The 10-week RSI is close to being overbought, but isn’t quite there.

With so many homebuilders being overbought, I found it interesting that Tickeron’s AI Prediction Tool generated bearish signals on four different homebuilders on January 12. The predictions called for declines of at least 4% over the next month and all four had confidence levels over 80%.

The four stocks that received the bearish signals were D.R. Horton (DHI), LGI Homes (LGIH), Meritage Homes (MTH), and Toll Brothers (TOL). If we look at the fundamental screener from Tickeron, we see that three of the four stocks, all but LGI Homes, get poor scores in their Outlook Ratings. Three of the four also get poor ratings from their P/E Growth Rating with Toll Brothers being the only one that doesn’t get a bad score.

All four companies get neutral ratings in the SMR Ratings and the Price Growth Ratings. As you can see in the snapshot above, there are very few scores highlighted in green. D.R. Horton gets two, the Valuation Rating and the Profit vs. Risk Rating, and Toll Brothers and LGI Homes each get one positive rating.

The technical screener shows LGI Homes getting four bearish signals and only one bullish signal. Meritage Homes also gets four bearish signals, but it has three bullish signals as well.

Toll Brothers gets the best marks on the technical side with four bullish signals and two bearish signals. D.R. Horton shows three bullish signals and two bearish signals.

All four stocks have received bearish signals from the Aroon Indicator within the last few weeks. Three of the four have received bearish signals from the Momentum Indicator in the last 10 days and three of the four have received bearish signals from the moving averages.

These companies have benefitted from the change in consumer behavior, but it could be the bearish signals are suggesting that the stocks have rallied to the point that they have gotten ahead of the possible growth for the companies.

You can see a complete analysis and comparison for the companies from Tickeron’s artificial intelligence platform below.

Related Ticker: XHB

Momentum Indicator for XHB turns negative, indicating new downward trend

XHB saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on March 28, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 85 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where XHB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XHB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for XHB entered a downward trend on March 24, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XHB's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XHB just turned positive on March 19, 2025. Looking at past instances where XHB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XHB advanced for three days, in of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

XHB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE:JCI), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), Owens Corning (NYSE:OC), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an index derived from the homebuilding segment of a U.S. total market composite index. In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index (the "index"), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index ("S&P TMI").

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF ETF is 29.1B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 959.76M to 380.15B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 380.15B. The lowest valued company is HOV at 959.76M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF ETF was 8%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 20%. SGI experienced the highest price growth at 4%, while LGIH experienced the biggest fall at -8%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF ETF was 8%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -14% and the average quarterly volume growth was 87%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 61
P/E Growth Rating: 64
Price Growth Rating: 66
SMR Rating: 37
Profit Risk Rating: 36
Seasonality Score: 42 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
XHB
Daily Signalchanged days ago
Gain/Loss if bought
Show more...
Ad is loading...
A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

Category ConsumerDiscretionary

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Consumer Cyclical
Address
SPDR Series TrustOne Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
Phone
N/A
Web
www.spdrs.com
Ad is loading...
"🚀 PHAXIAM Therapeutics SA Skyrockets +18.82%! Dive into this biotech penny stock's stellar week and the industry's broader movements. 📈🔬
Explore annualized returns of +110% for Day Traders and +50% for Swing Traders using Price Action Trading Strategies (TA&FA) on popular managed healthcare stocks like $BIOS $CI $CNC $ELV $HUM $MOH $UNH. Stay updated on the 1-week change of +3% in this dynamic market.
The ethanol industry encompasses a diverse range of business activities, primarily focusing on the production of ethanol and sugar. Beyond these core products, companies within this theme also engage in the development of related assets, such as fuel storage tanks.
Cisco Systems set to soar! 🚀 A.I. predicts +4% growth in the coming month. Is CSCO the next big move in your portfolio? 📈💰
#trading
The Office Equipment/Supplies sector has emerged as a standout performer in recent times, posting an impressive 6.13% increase in its performance over the past week. This surge in performance is supported by a group of tickers, including $ACTG, $SCS, $HNI, $EBF, and $ACCO, which have collectively displayed a positive outlook. In this article, we will delve into the theme of this sector and analyze the group of tickers within it that are driving this positive momentum.
"IBM Skyrockets: +15.54% Quarterly Jump! Dive into the data behind this tech titan's remarkable rally. 📈🚀"
#investment#trading
The pharmaceutical sector is known for its dynamic nature, with companies often experiencing rapid shifts in performance and sentiment. In the past week, pharmaceutical companies, as represented by a group of tickers including RPRX, CALT, INZY, and HRMY, have seen a noteworthy increase in performance, surging by +3.13%. In this article, we will delve into the details of this trend, explore key indicators, and assess the outlook for these companies.
The term 'challenging disorders' envelops a vast expanse of the healthcare sector, extending from medical devices, facilities to biotechs, and pharmaceutical firms.
The ocean transportation sector has been making waves recently, experiencing a significant performance boost of +3.74% over the past week. In this article, we'll delve into the theme and explore the key tickers within this sector, shedding light on their market capitalization, recent price movements, volume trends, and fundamental analysis ratings.
Forest products encompass materials harvested from forestry intended for direct utilization or commercial activities.
The toy industry has seen some significant ups and downs in recent times, with a cluster of notable companies taking center stage in this exciting and ever-evolving market. In this article, we delve into the recent performance of select toy companies, examining key indicators and trends that have shaped their stock movements.
Dive into the dynamics behind the recent 2.68% rise in the Wholesale Distributors sector. With standout performers like $GIC, $POOL, $SITE, $FERG, and $CNM, we dissect the market movements and pivotal factors driving this uptrend. Read on to stay ahead!
🚀 Biocept (BIOC) surges +51.63% in a month! Amid industry downtrends, BIOC shines. What's next for this penny stock? 📈
#latest#investment
The aluminum construction companies have experienced a significant boost, with the segment seeing a +11.13% increase in performance over the past week. This growth is largely driven by the rising demand for lightweight materials, particularly in the automotive sector, where aluminum is being widely adopted to improve fuel efficiency. The aluminum industry plays a vital role in the U.S. economy, generating approximately $71 billion annually in direct economic impact, according to The Aluminum Association.
Unlock the potential of AI-powered swing trading with robots designed to track dips in top S&P 500 stocks. Whether you're a beginner or experienced trader, these tools help manage up to $20k per position, balancing risk and reward with advanced algorithms and market insights. Discover how to maximize returns in volatile markets!
Discover Tickeron's new AI-driven trading bots designed for high-volatility markets and impulse price action. Leveraging Financial Learning Models (FLMs) and technical analysis, these bots optimize trades, offer a 70% win rate, and execute strategies for day traders focused on fast market moves.
The Diesel Companies segment has displayed a notable increase of +9.44% in performance over the past week. This uptick highlights a positive trend in the sector, encompassing companies involved in the manufacturing of diesel vehicles and the distribution of transportation fuels.
The medical companies segment has experienced a notable increase in performance, recording a weekly gain of +3.53%. This sector encompasses companies involved in the production and supply of pharmaceuticals and essential medical products, catering to a broad spectrum of healthcare needs. Their product offerings include surgical apparel, gloves, hospital furniture, fluid management solutions, and specialized equipment for cosmetic and surgical procedures.
Tickeron launches AI-powered Stock Picker robots to assist hedge fund managers with sector rotation, growth-focused small-cap stocks, and strategic risk management. Using proprietary FLMs, Stock Pickers offer quant-driven signals and adaptive strategies for long-term growth and investment
Tickeron unveils an intuitive AI trading bot interface, offering tailored strategies for day, swing, and trend traders. From beginners to pros, discover tools designed to optimize trading precision, adapt to market volatility, and provide hedge fund-level insights for smarter investments.
#latest#popular#trading