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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Dec 30, 2020

High Probability Bullish Signals Generated on Two Steel Companies

Base metals have been rallying sharply over the last three months and a number of stocks in the industry have seen huge gains. Steel prices have been rising and it has taken steel stocks higher with it. The stocks have seen small pullbacks in the last month and that may be creating a buying opportunity.

On December 29, Tickeron’s A.I.dvisor generated bullish signals on two steel companies and the confidence levels of those two signals were extremely high. The AI trend prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Nucor Corp. (NUE) and on US Steel (X). The confidence level for the Nucor signal was 90% and the confidence level on the signal for US Steel was 88%. These signals are for the next month.

Looking at the daily charts for the two stocks we see very different paths higher. For Nucor, the rally has been pretty consistent since the low in March, and it has been even more consistent in the last five months with a trend channel forming. The stock has just bounced off of the lower rail of the channel and support at its 50-day moving average.

We also see that the daily stochastic indicators are in oversold territory and are in the process of making a bullish crossover.

US Steel’s chart isn’t quite as consistent. We see that the stock rallied from March through mid-June before falling. From late June through mid-September the stock was range bound. The stock really took off though and from late September through early December it gained over 190%. The stock peaked at $20 on December 9 and then pulled back for a few weeks.

We see that the pullback in US Steel caused its daily stochastic indicators to drop sharply and they went from overbought to oversold. The indicators, like we saw with Nucor, are in the process of making a bullish crossover.

I have to be honest, these signals are based almost exclusively on technical factors because neither of the companies have very good fundamental ratings. On the Tickeron Fundamental Analysis Screener, Nucor has two positive indicators and two negative indicators with three neutral readings. US Steel only has one positive indicator and one neutral indicator, the other five are negative readings.

The Tickeron scorecard gives both stocks a “sell” rating, but the scorecard ratings are looking out beyond the next month and they rely on fundamental factors more heavily. The one fundamental indicator where both companies receive a positive reading is the Valuation Rating. Nucor scores an 8 and US Steel scores a 27.

The comparison feature from Tickeron shows how the companies compare to one another and how they stack up against other stacks based on the scores from both the fundamental indicators and the technical indicators.

Related Ticker: X

X's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for X entered a downward trend on May 28, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 163 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 163 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 13, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on X as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for X turned negative on June 14, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

X moved below its 50-day moving average on June 04, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 50-day moving average for X moved below the 200-day moving average on May 30, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where X's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 55 cases where X's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where X advanced for three days, in of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 69%.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.736) is normal, around the industry mean (1.198). P/E Ratio (10.592) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.885). X's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.927). X has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.005) as compared to the industry average of (0.047). P/S Ratio (0.526) is also within normal values, averaging (1.154).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. X’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF).

Industry description

The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Steel Industry is 6.36B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 107.02K to 37.78B. NUE holds the highest valuation in this group at 37.78B. The lowest valued company is GCIN at 107.02K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10%. KIROY experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while APMSF experienced the biggest fall at -14%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Steel Industry was 27%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 6% and the average quarterly volume growth was 46%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 21
P/E Growth Rating: 37
Price Growth Rating: 66
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 68
Seasonality Score: -22 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacture of integrated steel products

Industry Steel

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Steel
Address
600 Grant Street
Phone
+1 412 433-1121
Employees
21803
Web
https://www.ussteel.com
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