GET DAILY SIGNALSHims & Hers Health (HIMS): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview Amid GLP-1 Challenges
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of approximately $617 million, up 5% from $586 million in Q1 2025.
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.03, reflecting a sharp decline from $0.20 in the year-ago quarter amid higher costs.
- Company guidance for Q1 revenue is $600-625 million, aligning closely with expectations but below some prior analyst views.
- Subscribers ended 2025 at 2.51 million; focus on retention and average revenue per user (ARPU) around $83 monthly.
- Full-year 2026 guidance: revenue $2.7-2.9 billion, Adjusted EBITDA $300-375 million.
- HIMS stock down ~13% YTD amid GLP-1 regulatory pressures, but up recently ahead of earnings.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As HIMS, a leading telehealth platform, prepares to report first quarter 2026 earnings on May 11 after market close, I'm paying close attention to how investors will gauge the company's growth trajectory. The past periods saw explosive demand for GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) offerings, but now there's clear deceleration. HIMS wrapped up 2025 with revenue of $2.35 billion, a 59% year-over-year increase fueled by weight loss products and subscriber growth to 2.51 million. Regulatory scrutiny on compounded semaglutide and the pivot toward branded drugs from companies like Novo Nordisk introduce notable risks. In my view, these Q1 results will clarify whether core areas—men's health, dermatology, and mental health—can maintain momentum as GLP-1 growth moderates. For everyday investors, strong performance on subscribers or ARPU could underscore the long-term promise of personalized telehealth care, while shortfalls might heighten volatility in this competitive space.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's projections for Q1 2026 point to revenue of $616.85-$619.6 million, marking a modest 5-6% rise from $586 million in Q1 2025, according to Yahoo Finance (13 analysts) and Zacks data. This fits squarely within the company's own guidance of $600-625 million from its Q4 2025 earnings call. The EPS consensus sits at $0.03 (11 analysts), a steep drop from $0.20 a year earlier, driven by margin squeezes from elevated marketing, R&D on branded GLP-1s, and supply chain adjustments.
From what I see, the metrics to watch closely include subscriber growth past the 2.51 million at the end of 2025, ARPU holding steady around $83 monthly, and Adjusted EBITDA in the guided range of $35-55 million. HIMS has shown a mixed track record on beats: it topped Q4 2025 EPS ($0.08 versus $0.02 expected) but slightly missed revenue ($618 million versus $619 million); earlier, it handily exceeded Q1 2025 revenue and EPS. Historically, the stock has moved about 10-15% after earnings, particularly on upward guidance revisions.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings feels cautiously optimistic to me. HIMS shares have climbed over 30% in the past month, though they're still down 13% year-to-date amid GLP-1 headwinds such as FDA restrictions on compounded versions. Analysts hold a Moderate Buy rating, with price targets averaging $29-32, and they're highlighting the Novo Nordisk partnership for branded Wegovy. On the risk side, we could see guidance misses or subscriber churn; potential upsides lie in core category growth or an improved full-year outlook. Implied volatility points to a roughly 14% stock move following the report.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1, I'll be tracking whether the company reaffirms its full-year 2026 guidance: revenue of $2.7-2.9 billion (15-24% growth over 2025's $2.35 billion) and Adjusted EBITDA of $300-375 million, implying margins of 11-13%. This outlook hinges on sustained access to compounded semaglutide and smooth progress on the proposed Eucalyptus acquisition, expected mid-2026.
One thing that stands out is subscriber trends, with goals to push beyond 2.51 million, and ARPU growth through tailored offerings in weight loss, menopause care, and labs. Regulatory shifts in GLP-1s are pivotal; moving to branded options may strain short-term margins but could enhance long-term stability. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how HIMS stacks up against peers on growth metrics.
Keep an eye on cost controls, such as marketing expenses and supply chain improvements, plus expansion in non-GLP-1 areas like men's health and dermatology. Future quarters should show if international push and diagnostics can counter domestic pressures. Strong execution across these could enable steady scaling in telehealth.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to cut through the noise on stocks like HIMS. This AI-powered tool lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals—customizable by industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and more. It surfaces trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities far faster than manual scans, helping me spot how HIMS compares in the telehealth space. It's become a go-to for efficient, data-driven insights in my analysis.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
HIMS in +5.63% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 04, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where HIMS advanced for three days, in 240 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
HIMS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HIMS as a result. In 67 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HIMS turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
HIMS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HIMS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HIMS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Aroon Indicator for HIMS entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (18.719) is normal, around the industry mean (7.271). P/E Ratio (-41.935) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.624) is also within normal values, averaging (2.202). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.686) is also within normal values, averaging (181.047).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. HIMS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HIMS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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