Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview Amid GLP-1 Challenges
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of approximately $617 million, up 5% from $586 million in Q1 2025.
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $0.03, reflecting a sharp decline from $0.20 in the year-ago quarter amid higher costs.
- Company guidance for Q1 revenue is $600-625 million, aligning closely with expectations but below some prior analyst views.
- Subscribers ended 2025 at 2.51 million; focus on retention and average revenue per user (ARPU) around $83 monthly.
- Full-year 2026 guidance: revenue $2.7-2.9 billion, Adjusted EBITDA $300-375 million.
- HIMS stock down ~13% YTD amid GLP-1 regulatory pressures, but up recently ahead of earnings.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As HIMS, a leading telehealth platform, prepares to report first quarter 2026 earnings on May 11 after market close, I'm paying close attention to how investors will gauge the company's growth trajectory. The past periods saw explosive demand for GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) offerings, but now there's clear deceleration. HIMS wrapped up 2025 with revenue of $2.35 billion, a 59% year-over-year increase fueled by weight loss products and subscriber growth to 2.51 million. Regulatory scrutiny on compounded semaglutide and the pivot toward branded drugs from companies like Novo Nordisk introduce notable risks. In my view, these Q1 results will clarify whether core areas—men's health, dermatology, and mental health—can maintain momentum as GLP-1 growth moderates. For everyday investors, strong performance on subscribers or ARPU could underscore the long-term promise of personalized telehealth care, while shortfalls might heighten volatility in this competitive space.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's projections for Q1 2026 point to revenue of $616.85-$619.6 million, marking a modest 5-6% rise from $586 million in Q1 2025, according to Yahoo Finance (13 analysts) and Zacks data. This fits squarely within the company's own guidance of $600-625 million from its Q4 2025 earnings call. The EPS consensus sits at $0.03 (11 analysts), a steep drop from $0.20 a year earlier, driven by margin squeezes from elevated marketing, R&D on branded GLP-1s, and supply chain adjustments.
From what I see, the metrics to watch closely include subscriber growth past the 2.51 million at the end of 2025, ARPU holding steady around $83 monthly, and Adjusted EBITDA in the guided range of $35-55 million. HIMS has shown a mixed track record on beats: it topped Q4 2025 EPS ($0.08 versus $0.02 expected) but slightly missed revenue ($618 million versus $619 million); earlier, it handily exceeded Q1 2025 revenue and EPS. Historically, the stock has moved about 10-15% after earnings, particularly on upward guidance revisions.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings feels cautiously optimistic to me. HIMS shares have climbed over 30% in the past month, though they're still down 13% year-to-date amid GLP-1 headwinds such as FDA restrictions on compounded versions. Analysts hold a Moderate Buy rating, with price targets averaging $29-32, and they're highlighting the Novo Nordisk partnership for branded Wegovy. On the risk side, we could see guidance misses or subscriber churn; potential upsides lie in core category growth or an improved full-year outlook. Implied volatility points to a roughly 14% stock move following the report.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1, I'll be tracking whether the company reaffirms its full-year 2026 guidance: revenue of $2.7-2.9 billion (15-24% growth over 2025's $2.35 billion) and Adjusted EBITDA of $300-375 million, implying margins of 11-13%. This outlook hinges on sustained access to compounded semaglutide and smooth progress on the proposed Eucalyptus acquisition, expected mid-2026.
One thing that stands out is subscriber trends, with goals to push beyond 2.51 million, and ARPU growth through tailored offerings in weight loss, menopause care, and labs. Regulatory shifts in GLP-1s are pivotal; moving to branded options may strain short-term margins but could enhance long-term stability. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how HIMS stacks up against peers on growth metrics.
Keep an eye on cost controls, such as marketing expenses and supply chain improvements, plus expansion in non-GLP-1 areas like men's health and dermatology. Future quarters should show if international push and diagnostics can counter domestic pressures. Strong execution across these could enable steady scaling in telehealth.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to cut through the noise on stocks like HIMS. This AI-powered tool lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals—customizable by industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and more. It surfaces trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities far faster than manual scans, helping me spot how HIMS compares in the telehealth space. It's become a go-to for efficient, data-driven insights in my analysis.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
HIMS saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for HIMS moved out of overbought territory on September 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 62 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 55 of the 62 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HIMS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
HIMS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HIMS entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HIMS as a result. In 72 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HIMS just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where HIMS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
HIMS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HIMS advanced for three days, in 244 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HIMS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HIMS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (20.704) is normal, around the industry mean (43.873). P/E Ratio (57.137) is within average values for comparable stocks, (141.710). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.624) is also within normal values, averaging (2.152). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.005) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.686) is also within normal values, averaging (178.797).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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