CSX vs CP Stock Comparison: Q4 2025 Earnings Preview as CSX Prepares to Report
Key Takeaways
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CSX reports Q4 2025 earnings on January 22, with consensus calling for EPS of $0.42 and revenue of roughly $3.59 billion, essentially flat year over year.
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Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s most recent Q3 2025 results were strong; while Q4 details are still pending, investors are watching for sustained volume growth and margin expansion.
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Both railroads face similar challenges, including softer freight demand and macro uncertainty, but differ strategically—CSX emphasizes operating efficiency while CP benefits from network expansion.
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CSX shares have traded sideways in recent months, while CP has shown relative strength amid consolidation in the rail industry.
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Key metrics to watch include CSX’s operating ratio and intermodal volumes versus CP’s progress in precision scheduled railroading.
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Investor attention is squarely on 2026 guidance, particularly around volumes, pricing, and cost pressures.
Why This Comparison Matters
CSX Corporation, a major U.S. East Coast rail operator, reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after market close today, marking the end of a year characterized by uneven freight recovery. Comparing CSX with Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), now a transcontinental operator following its 2023 merger, highlights contrasting strategies within the North American rail sector.
Both companies contend with cyclical freight demand, labor costs, fuel volatility, and shifting trade flows. However, their network footprints differ significantly—CSX is concentrated in the eastern United States, while CP spans Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. This distinction shapes growth opportunities and risk exposure as investors assess sector resilience and outlooks for 2026.
What to Watch in CSX’s Earnings
CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) is expected to report EPS of $0.42 on revenue of approximately $3.59 billion, according to consensus estimates from Yahoo Finance and Zacks. Revenue is expected to be flat year over year following Q3 results of $3.72 billion. Key focus areas include the operating ratio, which management has targeted in the mid-60% range, along with merchandise and intermodal volume trends and pricing discipline amid declining coal shipments.
Historically, CSX has exceeded EPS expectations roughly 75% of the time, with shares averaging a modest positive move following earnings over the past two years. Investors will be particularly attuned to 2026 guidance, including capital expenditures, free cash flow targets above $2.5 billion, and volume recovery assumptions.
Canadian Pacific’s Positioning
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE: CP) last reported Q3 2025 earnings in October, delivering EPS of $0.69 and revenue growth of 6% to $3.79 billion. Results were driven by a 5% increase in volumes and a strong operating ratio of 62.9%, reflecting benefits from merger synergies and international intermodal growth.
While Q4 results are still forthcoming, expectations remain constructive, with full-year 2025 guidance pointing to mid-single-digit EPS growth. CP has outpaced CSX in top-line growth year to date, though it continues to carry higher capital expenditures tied to network integration. Shares are up roughly 15% year to date, compared with CSX’s largely flat performance, reflecting investor preference for CP’s growth profile.
AI Trading Strategy Perspective
Tickeron offers an AI-driven trading strategy tailored to CP, operating on a 60-minute timeframe and designed to capture short-term price movements in liquid, higher-volatility stocks. The “547-Day-Trader-Price-Action” model relies on technical patterns and price action signals, with built-in risk controls such as stop-loss levels. Backtested results suggest the strategy performs best in trending market conditions, offering traders an automated way to engage with CP’s price action.
Tickeron AI Perspective
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CSX and CP generate solid earnings quality, though their growth drivers differ. CSX relies heavily on domestic intermodal traffic, which accounts for more than half of revenue, along with incremental efficiency gains. CP, by contrast, benefits from cross-border volumes created by the CPKC merger, including strong growth in Mexican grain and automotive shipments.
Risk profiles also diverge. CSX maintains exposure to coal, which represents roughly 10% of revenue and faces long-term structural decline. CP is more exposed to currency fluctuations and integration costs but benefits from broader geographic diversification. Valuation reflects these differences, with CP trading at a higher multiple than CSX, while CSX offers a steadier dividend yield of approximately 1.4%.
AI-Based View
Tickeron’s AI models currently show a modest preference for CP, citing stronger volume momentum, improving margins, and the advantages of a continent-spanning network. The models assign CP a higher probability of outperforming into 2026, while CSX remains attractive for investors prioritizing income stability and lower valuation risk. CSX’s upcoming Q4 results and forward guidance will be critical in determining whether that gap narrows.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
CSX's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CSX turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where CSX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CSX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CSX as a result. In 51 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +1.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CSX advanced for three days, in 176 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
CSX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
CSX moved below its 50-day moving average on September 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CSX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Aroon Indicator for CSX entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.150) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (27.195) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.129). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.682) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.150) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
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General Information
a provider of rail-based transportation services
Industry Railroads
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