GET DAILY SIGNALSHow Much Money Will You Actually Spend in Retirement?
Planning for retirement can be daunting. After all, there are myriad variables to consider – the kind of post-work lifestyle you would like to maintain, the cost of living where you retire to, ongoing inflation, whether you will be collecting Social Security (and, if so, how much), among others – that are not only difficult to calculate, but difficult to even estimate accurately.
In a Wall Street Journal report, two Duke University professors – of behavioral economics and behavioral science – organized a study where they invited “hundreds of people – of different age groups, income levels, and professions – to [their] research lab and asked them how much of their salary they thought they would need in retirement.” Most participants pegged the amount at 70%, but not because they sat down to parse the numbers, but “because they recalled hearing it at some point...and they simply regurgitated it on demand.”
To calculate an actual (not perceived) figure, the professors, Dan Ariely and Aline Holzwarth, “took another group of participants, and asked them specific questions about how they wanted to spend their time in retirement,” then used the data to “[attach] reasonable numbers to their preferences and computed what percentage of their salary they would actually need to support the kind of lifestyle they imagined.” The actual percentage – 130% – almost doubled the conventional wisdom. While initially surprising, the figure makes sense: besides generating income, work is “a very cheap activity” by virtue of employer-covered expenses, like food and drink. Retirement, however, is perpetual free time – and countless opportunities to spend money that would not have been spent while in the workforce.
Ariely and Holzwarth then partnered with fintech company MoneyComb to devise a better way to determine retirement spending. They came up with “seven spending categories: eating out, digital services, recharge, travel, entertainment and shopping, and basic needs” to guide the process, then recommended “[imagining] that every day was the weekend” when estimating spending in each. As a baseline, they suggest visualizing a year in retirement spent “[living]…in the best way you can imagine” – making sure to clarify this “doesn’t necessarily mean ‘more expensive.’” Once each category is calculated and totaled, the number can be multiplied by years of expected retirement – usually around 20 – to determine a savings goal.
By examining each category realistically, future retirees can develop a true picture of their ideal post-retirement life, then develop a roadmap to make it happen. Whether this necessitates lifestyle adjustments in the present, a recalibration of idealized expectations, or a rejiggering of an investment portfolio, thinking about retirement in this way can make that retirement goal obtainable rather than a future casualty of poor planning.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SPY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 51 of 70 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In 56 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in 295 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 361 of 419 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 86%.
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