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Jul 14, 2020

Huge Disparity Between the Performances of Growth and Value Heading in to Earnings Season

Since the beginning of 2020, the S&P Growth Index has outperformed the S&P Value Index at every step of the way. Normally during a big market selloff, we would see growth stocks get hit harder than value stocks, but not this year. When the market went through its big selloff from February 19 through March 23, the SPDR S&P Growth ETF (NYSE: SPYG) dropped 31.27%. While that is a pretty sizable decline, the SPDR S&P Value ETF (NYSE: SPYV) fell 36.67%.

Even after the bounce off the lows, the growth index has outperformed the value index. Year to date (YTD), the growth fund is up 11.04% while the value fund is down 14.97%. Since the March 23 low, the growth fund is up 48.38% while the value fund is up 32.97%.

Sure, investment styles go in and out of favor all the time—one year value will perform better than growth and the next year we may see the opposite is true. For instance, in 2010, it was pretty close, but growth outperformed 16.24% to 15.48%. In 2011 growth managed a gain of 4.64% while value was down 0.72%. In 2012, value gained 17.22% and growth gained 14.19%. One of the closest races came in 2013 when growth gained 32.6% and value gained 31.76%.

Hopefully you are starting to see my point, but just in case you aren’t, in 2014 growth beat value out by 2.63%, and in 2o15 growth won again with a difference of 8.26%. Value won out in 2016 and the difference in returns was 10.23%. Growth won again in ’17 with a difference of 27.24% to 15.4%. Both funds lost ground in ’18, but growth lost 8.9% less. Value won out in another close race in 2019, 31.70% to 30.85%.

Looking at all of these past years we see that growth has outperformed value in the last 10 years. It’s been a historical bull market rally from the bear market that ended in early 2009, but look at the performance differences. The biggest disparity between the two styles came in 2017 when value was up almost 12% more than value.

Right now, so far in 2020, growth is up 11.04% and value is down almost 15% for a difference of 26%. That is an insane disparity between the two.

Monday, July 13, was an interesting day for the indices as all four of the main indices started out with significant gains, but selling hit the market in the afternoon and three of the four finished with significant losses. This date isn’t just a random date because it was the day before the second quarter earnings season was set to start.

Personally I took note of the fact that the SPDR Growth ETF dropped 1.62% on the day and the SPDR Value ETF gained 0.17%. This got my attention and I did a comparison between the two ETFs on the Tickeron platform. The thing that jumped out at me the most was how the most closely correlated stocks to each of the two funds performed on Monday. For the SPYG, seven of the 10 most correlated lost ground and there were a couple of big declines.

The opposite was true for the stocks most closely correlated to the SPYV. Eight of the 10 most highly correlated gained ground, one was unchanged, and one fell. Five of the 10 gained more than 1.0% on a day when the S&P itself was down almost 1.0%.

Obviously, one day’s returns don’t mean that a trend is changing, but the timing of the change caught my attention as the reversal in the main indices came just ahead of the earnings season.

I went back and looked at the 12-month returns of both the SPYG and the SPYV for the last 20 years. I took note of anytime where the growth fund beat the value fund by a substantial margin. Right now the 12-month return of the growth fund is 26% greater than the value fund and that is the biggest difference in the last 20 years.

Other times where growth outperformed value by more than 15% were very few, but they seemed to come at times where volatility increased—June ’08, December ’09, August ’11, and September ’18.

Based on these findings, I would advise investors to be cautious and prepare for a more volatile market in the second half of 2020.

Related Ticker: SPYG

SPYG sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

SPYG saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on February 16, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPYG moved out of overbought territory on February 13, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 52 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPYG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

SPYG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPYG as a result. In of 68 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPYG advanced for three days, in of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 490 cases where SPYG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE:LLY), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P 500 Growth Index that tracks the performance of large capitalization exchange traded U.S. equity securities exhibiting "growth" characteristics. The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index measures the performance of the large-capitalization growth segment of the U.S. equity market. It is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF ETF is 142.94B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.69B to 3.03T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.03T. The lowest valued company is GNRC at 6.69B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF ETF was 3%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 14%. CEG experienced the highest price growth at 30%, while PODD experienced the biggest fall at -15%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF ETF was -57%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -59% and the average quarterly volume growth was -51%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 66
P/E Growth Rating: 50
Price Growth Rating: 48
SMR Rating: 45
Profit Risk Rating: 38
Seasonality Score: -46 (-100 ... +100)
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SPYGDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

Category LargeGrowth

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Large Growth
Address
SPDR Series TrustOne Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
Phone
N/A
Web
www.spdrs.com
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SPYG and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPYG has been closely correlated with IVW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 100% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPYG jumps, then IVW could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To SPYG
1D Price
Change %
SPYG100%
-0.34%
IVW - SPYG
100%
Closely correlated
-0.32%
VOOG - SPYG
100%
Closely correlated
-0.33%
IUSG - SPYG
100%
Closely correlated
-0.32%
IWY - SPYG
100%
Closely correlated
-0.41%
MGK - SPYG
100%
Closely correlated
-0.34%
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