GET DAILY SIGNALSHuge Disparity Between the Performances of Growth and Value Heading in to Earnings Season
Since the beginning of 2020, the S&P Growth Index has outperformed the S&P Value Index at every step of the way. Normally during a big market selloff, we would see growth stocks get hit harder than value stocks, but not this year. When the market went through its big selloff from February 19 through March 23, the SPDR S&P Growth ETF (NYSE: SPYG) dropped 31.27%. While that is a pretty sizable decline, the SPDR S&P Value ETF (NYSE: SPYV) fell 36.67%.
Even after the bounce off the lows, the growth index has outperformed the value index. Year to date (YTD), the growth fund is up 11.04% while the value fund is down 14.97%. Since the March 23 low, the growth fund is up 48.38% while the value fund is up 32.97%.
Sure, investment styles go in and out of favor all the time—one year value will perform better than growth and the next year we may see the opposite is true. For instance, in 2010, it was pretty close, but growth outperformed 16.24% to 15.48%. In 2011 growth managed a strong performance while value was down 0.72%. In 2012, value gained 17.22% and growth gained 14.19%. One of the closest races came in 2013 when growth gained 32.6% and value gained 31.76%.
Hopefully you are starting to see my point, but just in case you aren’t, in 2014 growth beat value out by 2.63%, and in 2o15 growth won again with a difference of 8.26%. Value won out in 2016 and the difference in returns was 10.23%. Growth won again in ’17 with a difference of 27.24% to 15.4%. Both funds lost ground in ’18, but growth lost 8.9% less. Value won out in another close race in 2019, 31.70% to 30.85%.
Looking at all of these past years we see that growth has outperformed value in the last 10 years. It’s been a historical bull market rally from the bear market that ended in early 2009, but look at the performance differences. The biggest disparity between the two styles came in 2017 when value was up almost 12% more than value.
Right now, so far in 2020, growth is up 11.04% and value is down almost 15% for a difference of 26%. That is an insane disparity between the two.
Monday, July 13, was an interesting day for the indices as all four of the main indices started out with significant gains, but selling hit the market in the afternoon and three of the four finished with significant losses. This date isn’t just a random date because it was the day before the second quarter earnings season was set to start.
Personally I took note of the fact that the SPDR Growth ETF dropped 1.62% on the day and the SPDR Value ETF gained 0.17%. This got my attention and I did a comparison between the two ETFs on the Tickeron platform. The thing that jumped out at me the most was how the most closely correlated stocks to each of the two funds performed on Monday. For the SPYG, seven of the 10 most correlated lost ground and there were a couple of big declines.
The opposite was true for the stocks most closely correlated to the SPYV. Eight of the 10 most highly correlated gained ground, one was unchanged, and one fell. Five of the 10 gained more than 1.0% on a day when the S&P itself was down almost 1.0%.
Obviously, one day’s returns don’t mean that a trend is changing, but the timing of the change caught my attention as the reversal in the main indices came just ahead of the earnings season.
I went back and looked at the 12-month returns of both the SPYG and the SPYV for the last 20 years. I took note of anytime where the growth fund beat the value fund by a substantial margin. Right now the 12-month return of the growth fund is 26% greater than the value fund and that is the biggest difference in the last 20 years.
Other times where growth outperformed value by more than 15% were very few, but they seemed to come at times where volatility increased—June ’08, December ’09, August ’11, and September ’18.
Based on these findings, I would advise investors to be cautious and prepare for a more volatile market in the second half of 2020.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
SPYG's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for SPYG moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 25 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPYG advanced for three days, in 298 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
SPYG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPYG as a result. In 64 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPYG turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
SPYG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPYG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPYG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for SPYG entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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