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Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
published in Blogs
Oct 21, 2020

Huge Week for Social Media and Internet Stocks

With the earnings season shifting in to high gear, we will start to see more industries with groups of stocks reporting earnings in the same week. This week we have industries like airlines, banks, chemicals, railroads, and semiconductors with groups of companies reporting. The industry theme continues next week with more semiconductors, a big group of software stocks, and several other industries with large groups reporting. One particular industry that got my attention was internet/social media.

On Thursday, October 29, Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Twitter (TWTR) will all report earnings results. While all three reporting on the same day got my attention, we also had the U.S. Department of Justice file an antitrust lawsuit against Google on October 20. This case could be the first of many with the goal being to break up some of the large tech giants including Facebook, Amazon, and others.

While it will likely take months or years for the legal battles to play out, I want to focus on the earnings reports of the three stocks I mentioned above. Tickeron has a positive outlook on the group and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 86%. 

I was a little surprised when I looked at the Tickeron Scorecard for the three stocks as there was quite a diverse set of readings. Facebook and Twitter both receive “sell” ratings right now while Alphabet has a “strong buy” rating.

The A.I. Predictions for the next week and the next month all three show the stocks moving higher with Twitter showing the greatest convictions in terms of the percentages.

There were also big discrepancies between the fundamental and technical analysis indicators. Facebook and Alphabet both show zero negatives from the fundamentals and Facebook has four positive readings and Alphabet shows three. Twitter shows only one positive and three negative readings.

The technical indicators are even more interesting. Google shows four bullish signals and not a single bearish signal. Facebook shows two bullish signals and two bearish signals. Twitter shows one bullish signal and five bearish signals.

Looking deeper in to the fundamental indicators, the only area where there was a consensus for the three stocks was in the valuation ratings. All three stocks are rated as fairly valued at this time. For Twitter the two biggest negative readings were its outlook rating and its SMR rating. The company’s Price Growth Rating was the only positive.

Facebook has really strong readings in its Profit vs. Risk Rating, SMR Rating, and Price Growth Rating. The outlook rating is also positive, but the reading isn’t as strong as those other three indicators.

Alphabet has a really good Profit vs. Risk rating and it scores well in the P/E Growth Rating and Seasonality Score.

Turning our attention to the charts, all three of them experienced nice rallies from March through August. But Facebook and Alphabet both experienced small pullbacks in September. Twitter didn’t drop in September like the other two and now it is overbought based on the 10-week RSI and the weekly stochastic readings.

Neither Alphabet nor Facebook are in overbought territory at this time. Both of their RSIs are near 60 and both of their stochastic indicators are down around the 50 range.

As for the sentiment toward the stocks, the only area where there is any hint of bearish sentiment is on Twitter. The overall analysts’ ratings for the stock show only nine “buy” ratings out of 39 total ratings. There are 26 “hold” ratings and four “sell” ratings. This gives us a buy percentage of 23% and that is well below the average buy percentage which is in the 65% to 75% range. The buy percentages for Alphabet and Facebook are both over 85% and indicate high levels of optimism.

The short interest ratios are all below 2.0 and the average short interest ratio is in the 3.0 range. Facebook’s ratio is extremely low at 1.01.

Looking at the entire picture for each of these three stocks, I have to agree with the Tickeron Scorecard. The most bullish case can be made for Alphabet. The combination of fundamentals, technical indicators, not being overbought… It all adds up, except for the sentiment being bullish, but that seems to be warranted. The outlook for Facebook is pretty good and the outlook for Twitter is a little more muddled because the fundamentals aren’t as strong as the other two.

Related Ticker: GOOGL

GOOGL's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for GOOGL entered a downward trend on March 01, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 115 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 115 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for GOOGL moved out of overbought territory on January 31, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GOOGL as a result. In of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GOOGL turned negative on January 31, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

GOOGL moved below its 50-day moving average on February 26, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for GOOGL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOOGL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOOGL advanced for three days, in of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

GOOGL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GOOGL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.017) is normal, around the industry mean (17.362). P/E Ratio (23.645) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.840). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.313) is also within normal values, averaging (3.677). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.675) is also within normal values, averaging (9.230).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME), Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z), Twilio (NYSE:TWLO).

Industry description

Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Internet Software/Services Industry is 56.94B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.11K to 1.71T. GOOGL holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.71T. The lowest valued company is MSEZ at 1.11K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Internet Software/Services Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 4,321%. FMHS experienced the highest price growth at 104%, while ROII experienced the biggest fall at -63%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Internet Software/Services Industry was 4%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -30% and the average quarterly volume growth was 28%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 43
P/E Growth Rating: 73
Price Growth Rating: 60
SMR Rating: 79
Profit Risk Rating: 89
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
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GOOGLDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a holding company with interests in software, health care, transportation and other technologies

Industry InternetSoftwareServices

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Internet Software Or Services
Address
1600 Amphitheatre Parkway
Phone
+1 650 253-0000
Employees
18502
Web
https://www.abc.xyz
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GOOGL and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GOOGL has been closely correlated with GOOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 100% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GOOGL jumps, then GOOG could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
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6M
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NAME
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To GOOGL
1D Price
Change %
GOOGL100%
-0.95%
GOOG - GOOGL
100%
Closely correlated
-1.22%
META - GOOGL
50%
Loosely correlated
+2.48%
CARG - GOOGL
44%
Loosely correlated
+2.44%
DASH - GOOGL
37%
Loosely correlated
+2.30%
IAC - GOOGL
37%
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