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Illinois Tool Works ( ITW, $171.81) tops Q3 earnings expectations; affirms full-year guidance

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

ITW in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on August 31, 2026

ITW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 19 of 32 cases where ITW's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ITW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 9 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 38%.

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 29 of 53 cases where ITW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.

Following a +0.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 175 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ITW as a result. In 36 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ITW turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.

ITW moved below its 50-day moving average on August 31, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ITW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.

The Aroon Indicator for ITW entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (26.525) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.575). P/E Ratio (24.404) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.294). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.502) is also within normal values, averaging (1.856). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).