IMF cuts global economic growth forecast to 3.2%, while raising U.S. growth to 2.6%
The International Monetary Fund cut forecast on worldwide economic growth, while boosting outlook on the U.S. economy.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 3.2%, from an April projection of 3.3%.
The organization attributed higher U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the potential effects on global technology supply chains from U.S.-imposed sanctions as factors behind its downward revision. The IMF further said, "Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside".
The organization cut its forecast of China’s economic growth to 6.2%, which is -0.1 a percentage point lower than the April forecast.
However, the IMF increased its projection for U.S. growth by 0.3 a percentage point to 2.6% - the fastest among large advanced economies. IMF’s latest forecasts come amidst expectations of a U.S. policy interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
SPY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SPY moved above the 200-day moving average on June 27, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 03, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 68 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on June 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 432 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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