GET DAILY SIGNALSIMF Cuts World Economic Growth Forecast by 0.2 Percentage Points, Amid Brexit and Trade War Concerns
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for 2019 growth of the world economy, largely due to weakness in Germany and Turkey. The latest growth estimate is 3.5%, which is -0.2 percentage points below IMF’s previous forecast. This is IMF's second downward revision for the world economy’s 2019 growth.
IMF also pointed towards growing risks in the form of Brexit challenges and trade disputes amongst nations. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned the "risk of a sharper decline in global growth has certainly increased," but also indicated that the headwind is unlikely to snowball into a global recession anytime soon. China’s macroeconomic slowdown amidst U.S. tariffs was mentioned as a potent cause of concern about global markets and economies.
The IMF projects the U.S. economy to grow at 2.5% in 2019 followed by a slower 1.8% in 2020.
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Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SPY in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 35 of 39 cases where SPY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in 295 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 362 of 419 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 86%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 49 of 70 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In 61 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
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