India is expected to grow 7.3% in 2019, but is the estimate reliable?

Economic growth worldwide has taken a hit, and India is not outside the softening growth projections. A fair comparison could be made with China for whom the Sino-American trade war is proving hazardous. But India may be in a better position than China, as IMF says that being the six-largest economy in the world, India has the potential to grow by 7.3% in 2019.

However, these sources are unreliable.

The former chief economist of IMF himself expressed doubts over the veracity of these numbers, calling them ungrounded since there isn't any substantial job growth in India.

Consequently, he suggested that India should delegate the analysis to an independent third party body that could take a detailed look at the existing economy and come up with accurate numbers and realistic strategies.

China has also been criticized over its dubious growth figures, but some sources justify that it’s simply difficult to compile reliable data for emerging markets like India and China.

According to the World Bank’s statistical capacity score, India is in the 91st percentile in its ability to produce high quality aggregate data, beating China in its score at 77th percentile. This indicates that the nation should have a much easier time compared to China when it comes to providing investors with accurate numbers.

Reasons for the unreliable numbers in India are frequently, perhaps rightly, attributed to its strained relation with Pakistan over Kashmir issue, corruption and misinformation. Also, political instability in the country is also creating  uncertainty in the market.