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published in Blogs
Apr 04, 2019

India is expected to grow 7.3% in 2019, but is the estimate reliable?

Economic growth worldwide has taken a hit, and India is not outside the softening growth projections. A fair comparison could be made with China for whom the Sino-American trade war is proving hazardous. But India may be in a better position than China, as IMF says that being the six-largest economy in the world, India has the potential to grow by 7.3% in 2019.

However, these sources are unreliable.

The former chief economist of IMF himself expressed doubts over the veracity of these numbers, calling them ungrounded since there isn't any substantial job growth in India.

Consequently, he suggested that India should delegate the analysis to an independent third party body that could take a detailed look at the existing economy and come up with accurate numbers and realistic strategies.

China has also been criticized over its dubious growth figures, but some sources justify that it’s simply difficult to compile reliable data for emerging markets like India and China.

According to the World Bank’s statistical capacity score, India is in the 91st percentile in its ability to produce high quality aggregate data, beating China in its score at 77th percentile. This indicates that the nation should have a much easier time compared to China when it comes to providing investors with accurate numbers.

Reasons for the unreliable numbers in India are frequently, perhaps rightly, attributed to its strained relation with Pakistan over Kashmir issue, corruption and misinformation. Also, political instability in the country is also creating  uncertainty in the market.

 

Related Ticker: INDY

Momentum Indicator for INDY turns positive, indicating new upward trend

INDY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 20, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 87 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for INDY just turned positive on May 17, 2024. Looking at past instances where INDY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

INDY moved above its 50-day moving average on May 16, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for INDY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 22, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where INDY advanced for three days, in of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where INDY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

INDY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the Nifty 50 IndexTM composed of 50 of the largest Indian equities. The underlying index measures the equity performance of the top 50 companies by free float market capitalization whose equity securities trade in the Indian securities markets. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The fund is non-diversified.
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General Information

Category WorldStock

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
India Equity
Address
iShares Trust400 Howard StreetSan Francisco
Phone
1-800-474-2737
Web
www.ishares.com
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