Is Bitcoin Set for Another Bull Run in 2019?
The mainstream hype surrounding cryptocurrency has cooled, but reports of its demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. After a difficult 2018, including substantial drops in value in November of that year, bitcoin has rebounded well in 2019, and while the inherent volatility of crypto is always in play, Bloomberg reported in early May that market researchers Fundstrat Global Advisors suggest investors should buy more – especially with a pullback looming.
Robert Sluymer, a technical strategist at Fundstrat, advised investors on May 2 to “use pending pullbacks to continue accumulating Bitcoin in the second quarter in anticipation of a second-half rally through ~6,000 resistance.” Sluymer characterized bitcoin’s recent trajectory as “the early stage of a longer-term recovery developing,” evidenced by a “breakout from its first-quarter trading range” and “rebound from its 200-week moving average,” said the Bloomberg report.
Bitcoin has had a good May so far, reaching as high as $8,300 on May 16. A segment of analysts believe strong performance will continue into 2020, potentially reaching a new all-time high of $20,000-plus, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told CNBC. Lee and Fundstrat believe a variety of factors are responsible (and continue to bode well) for bitcoin’s long-term prospects, including political and economic upheaval in Venezuela and Turkey leading to increased adoption, bitcoin closing above its 200-day moving average in April, a golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and consensus “among ‘original’ bitcoin bulls that the bottom has been put in.”
If Lee is to be believed, bitcoin is in the midst of an ongoing growth and stabilization process. “I think you’re seeing signs that fundamentals are improving, technicals are improving, and now there’s real activity by, essentially, crypto holders,” Lee told CNBC. A recent MarketWatch report seemed to echo this opinion – while Google searches for bitcoin lagged behind their late 2017 levels, experts believe that this has more to do with bitcoin being a better-known quantity than at that time. “The recent bout of strength is not retail driven,” said Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at crypto-focused asset management firm Arca. “There’s some big family offices, direct buying in the OTC [over-the-counter] markets and the hedge-fund space. They are certainly not Googling bitcoin.”
Bitcoin has proven its volatile nature time and time again, which means taking its recent growth with a grain of salt. But bitcoin has also shown itself to be resilient – with increasingly strong fundamentals and positive market behavior, the “bullish longer-term technical profile [that is] developing” portends for additional gains in 2019 and beyond.
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Aroon Indicator for BTC.X shows an upward move is likely
BTC.X's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on December 09, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 464 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 464 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in of 436 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BTC.X moved out of overbought territory on November 25, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 58 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 92 cases where BTC.X's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 09, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BTC.X as a result. In of 136 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BTC.X turned negative on November 26, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 59 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
BTC.X broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 10, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
