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Feb 23, 2021

Is Ethereum’s Bomb about to Explode?

Ethereum’s software is set for an update in October. But this is no ordinary update – participants are in a race against the clock against a “difficulty bomb,” with six ethereum improvement proposals (EIPs) vying to alter the project’s code before severe consequences set in 2019.

Ethereum is currently transitioning from a Proof of Work cryptocurrency (meaning computational power is necessary to produce new coins, process transactions, and ensure the ecosystem functions as designed) to a Proof of Stake protocol (marked by a decrease in necessary computational power and offering rewards to miners based on their ether balance) as part of a necessary switch to ensure the system is scalable and decentralized in the future.

That Proof of Stake protocol, called Casper, is a work-in-progress. Until it is finished, participants in the Ethereum blockchain must determine how to delay the difficulty bomb – code that necessitates a steadily increasing amount of computer power to mine blocks and unlock rewards – that is already in place. Failing to do so would risk an “ice age,” where the blockchain is effectively frozen and no more blocks can be formed in it.

Ironically, the difficulty bomb was originally meant to ease the transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. But delaying the bomb and reconfiguring how ether rewards are released (a part of ensuring incentives align within a properly-secured blockchain) is creating its own set of problems. Altering the code means blocks will be easier for miners to find; rewards will need to be decreased proportionally with the delay to ensure ether is produced at the same rate.

Ethereum lacks a hard cap like Bitcoin’s 21 million units, meaning blockchain participants differ in opinion about how much to reduce (or, as touted by some participants, increase) supply. Because Ethereum is a decentralized network, there is even debate about how to vote on proposals – voting via the number of coins owned has been criticized as too informal.

While this is not the first time participants have been confronted with the impending difficulty bomb, it has become increasingly difficult to reach common ground with policy between miners and investors. Lane Rettig, an Ethereum developer, explained to CoinDesk that postponing the bomb “isn’t particularly controversial” – the issuance problem, however, is, and the problems are very difficult to decouple from each other. “You can’t have one without the other,” said Rettig.

Proposals for potential solutions vary in approach – EIP 1240 seeks to remove the bomb completely; EIP 1276 looks to remove the bomb and lower issuance to two ether per block from the current three. Other proposals seek to just reduce the reward, to one or two ether. What is clear is that multiple opposing viewpoints will need to be considered to reach a solution and that the time crunch means someone will have to budge.

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Related Ticker: ETC.X

ETC.X sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

ETC.X saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on March 14, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 54 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ETC.X moved out of overbought territory on March 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 56 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 14, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ETC.X as a result. In of 128 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ETC.X advanced for three days, in of 411 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ETC.X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 231 cases where ETC.X Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the group is 4.59B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 4.59B to 4.59B. ETC.X holds the highest valuation in this group at 4.59B. The lowest valued company is ETC.X at 4.59B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was -17%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was 20%, and the average quarterly price growth was 101%. ETC.X experienced the highest price growth at -17%, while ETC.X experienced the biggest fall at -17%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was -61%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 60% and the average quarterly volume growth was 219%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating:
P/E Growth Rating:
Price Growth Rating:
SMR Rating:
Profit Risk Rating:
Seasonality Score: (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
ETC.XDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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ETC.X and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ETC.X has been closely correlated with WBETH.X. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ETC.X jumps, then WBETH.X could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
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6M
1Y
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Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To ETC.X
1D Price
Change %
ETC.X100%
-1.74%
WBETH.X - ETC.X
82%
Closely correlated
-3.42%
ETH.X - ETC.X
82%
Closely correlated
-3.42%
WNXM.X - ETC.X
77%
Closely correlated
-3.99%
BAL.X - ETC.X
74%
Closely correlated
-3.86%
XTZ.X - ETC.X
69%
Closely correlated
-5.40%
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